TEc - No big bazooka

Yet again the latest deal has shown that Mrs. Merkel's step-by-step approach won the day.

There does appear to be real boldness however, when all three major decisions are assessed independently and taken together. Not least formal acknowledgment of Greece's inability to pay its debts and the generous haircut agreed upon.
Technicalities are complex enough, consequences far-reaching that political will was on display to a considerable degree.

It is fair to say that while a final resolution to the Eurozone crisis is still a long way off, substantial extra track has now been covered to that end.
Unlike previous ones this has been the bigger step forward so far.

TEc - Time for Super Mario

Super Mario?
The one who felled or who rescued the Euro?
Is it a matter of personality (that does count but not fully) or are we all looking for something radically different as a last hope?

Questions aside the ECB is the cornerstone of the Euro edifice.
Its top leadership and direction does therefore matter especially in troubled times such as the current one.

Perhaps understandably very few people are truly aware of the gargantuan tasks needed to redress the Euro.
If it is a bridge too far then the world will shortly know from the meetings due.

I find a single lonely word to best describe the current state of affairs: uncertainty.

A freshman at the helm of the ECB should provide a renewed breeze.
Delivery on the sovereign-debt crisis now engulfing a fair number of European countries takes a much wider circle.
In tune on critical issues.

TEc - In the mire - Portugal

A generally well-captured view of Portugal's predicament as it sails into unknown waters, i.e. the outcomes of current austerity presented and largely understood as a no-alternative programme are far from assured.
Doom and gloom should follow with a grin of resignation at best.

The country's institutions/companies/society got used to and got away with ingenious ways of circumventing sound management and accounting practices. Adjusting forcefully to smaller budgets at micro level will now be as challenging as meeting the macro targets set for Portugal as a whole.
The game in town is called "holes" that for longer than I can remember - both in fat and lean years - kept cropping up suddenly from the apparent normality of day-to-day business.

On the upside there is also a resilient country able to deliver quickly. Booming export sectors despite tough competition bear testimony to this.

Next year's contraction put at 3%(?) is despairing enough.
But Portugal might yet disprove its own pessimism to post a better all-round result at the end of 2012.
So I remain hopeful.

TEc - Squashing mosquitoes with dollar bills

The graph highlights that a targeted public health initiative backed by adequate funding does deliver relatively quickly.
A yearly average of US$500 million over 10 years has cut mortality rates meaningfully especially in Africa where the disease is felt acutest.
Progress has not been as relevant elsewhere particularly in South-East Asia.

A nagging doubt remains in that it is not clear whether the funding is on R&D only or R&D and the Malaria Vaccine Initiative by the WHO across the world. From the text I take it to be the latter(?).

TEc - Nut cluster

A smiling news as beaming as the two workers pictured.
An example of how an Indian company is introducing technology and providing opportunity to local communities.
The text's gist suggests a win-win formula built up straight from Nature's bounty. Matching production to the demands of discerning consumers everywhere.

The way forward is to move up the value chain by having more processing plants within Africa.

Rajkumar Impex is doing its part to strengthen trade ties between Africa, India and a host of countries worldwide.
I would wish to see Mozambique back to volume production and processing, one of the country's prized exports formerly.

Nuts is it!

TEc - Friends in need

Hardly surprising that the Tories should swim in a sea of contradictions vis-a-vis Eurozone troubles or the larger EU.
The British never quite made up their minds on 'the Continent' to always on the brink choose between pragmatics and the lesser evil.

The Eurozone project is indeed under enormous stress.
As we write uncertainty seems the only right word to use until a structural breakthrough eventually takes shape. If not, British scepticism or outright non-belief/rejection from early days will have been proved ominously right.

In the meantime how not to be worried when the UK is surrounded by Euro countries who are major trading partners too?
At 40% UK exports to the Eurozone are significant but not overly so.
It is the case, however, that there are no substitutes to these markets as dictated by geography, logistics, economics and history.

Then, the underlying political question remains largely unaddressed. As to whether or not the UK might favour further EU integration, which successive governments have not, or essentially an economic Union loosely bound by a set of common Treaties.

For now long-standing British reservations have confirmed themselves. The EU project has stalled as the Eurozone grapples with pressing economic and financial complexities derived from its own hurried monetary union.

Eurozone fortunes could still swing either way depending on political will as much as on economic reality.

TEc - Is China a currency manipulator?

If anything the chart lets us know China has widened its trade surplus with the US in spite of an appreciating yuan.

The yuan rose up to 2008 to remain remarkably flat till 2010, resuming an upward trend since.
There is no clear case of currency manipulation, rather a continuing erosion of America's manufacturing base largely made up for by Chinese imports.
The trade imbalance is absolutely phenomenal and there appears to be room for further one-way swinging.

My point is that America Inc. should collectively ask itself how it views the country in the years ahead.

TEc - What will next year bring?

To predict the World in an unpredictable age is a bold attempt between the wishful and the irrelevant.
A semblance of prediction is nonetheless required that would mostly rest on basic common-sense, whatever that is meant to be.

2012 will broadly spell the continuation of underlying trends where the World's Economy is concerned.
My best assessment is one of a three-speed world - a booming part encompassing vast regions across continents, a laggard one resembling an old man tired of life and a region of relative indifference.
Countries largely fit into these three categories according to past choices made by their leaderships or those of the blocs they are attached to.

At the dawn of 2012 champagne bottles will still get popped everywhere, regardless.
In keeping with tradition best wishes will be exchanged.
So I predict!

TEc - Chasing the dragon - China & India

Despite the outstanding progress made and the obvious gap between the two, China and India remain on track for decades of substantial growth.
If the starting line is taken into account then the giant strides already made come into sharp view. Given their huge populations even some of the lower ratios are beginning to look impressive in absolute numbers.
China's adult literacy rate compares favourably with more than a few countries in the developed world. It speaks tons for the massive efforts of the Central government over many years to take education to the people.

The most striking aspect from the chart is how much growth potential exists in both countries albeit to different degrees.