TEc - Winners and losers

This is what concerned people should have their eyes and minds on.
GDP per person - nominal and at PPP - is as accurate a reflection of overall economic performance as has been invented so far.
It gauges the wealth of nations and makes it possible to cross compare them.

I believe the rise of the BRIC+S to which a host of other successful nations around the world could be added is a most welcome development towards a fairer better balanced global economy and society.

What is very worrisome and should indeed be taken very seriously by the relevant people is the declining worth of long established developed countries. More so their trendlines and future prospects.
Germany and Japan are faring relevantly better in this lot despite each facing own problems to varying degrees.

In brief, the rise of the rest is only natural and entirely positive to bridge yawning gaps prevalent as recently as 5-10 years ago.The gaps exist and will remain for decades to come but are seen to be diminishing across multiple fields.

Sluggish, stagnant or declining economies of the not-so-rich-world-anymore, in relative terms, must find ways and means to prop up sound growth quickly.
Relative decline is unavoidable, absolute decline is not.

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Absolutely right!
There are many instances leading to relevant skewing of mean values.
That is, however, a matter for the more studious or better informed people such as yourself to investigate and critically evaluate.
GDP per capita is an important input assessing countries' economies, nonetheless.
Wealth distribution is a chapter that merits its own case.

TEc - Summit for one - The EURO

As much as I like to assemble a few words on the Euro's troubles to sensibly contribute to The Economist, never before have I felt how meaningless the whole exercise has become.
Nothing of what has been said or written from reputed editorialists, economists, experts, opinion-makers, politicians and citizens seems to have any bearing on unfolding events commanded solely by financial markets.
I have therefore taken a New Year's resolution not to attempt to closely understand the single currency's agony if only to keep my own sanity. Until, that is, some major politically driven initiative is made that represents a true break with standard practices over the last 1-2 years.

A sense of déjà vu is now pervasive, as if holding out merely hoping that the Euro muddles through is too uncomfortable to describe.

Too little and dismally poor as it is the only words I can think of are: "que sera, sera - what will be, will be" from that beautiful song!

TEc asks - Will the Euro survive 2012 intact?

I am utterly and wholly unable to answer this question.
As it turns out the Euro's survival no longer depends on politicians' ability to convince financial markets that they are prepared to mount its defense at any cost.
In 2012 the markets will continue to push yields up - they will have plenty of opportunity to do so picking one country at a time - taking the EMU to the brink.
Which domino will eventually withstand upright drawing a neat line beyond survivability mode?

For the rest of us mere passive onlookers there remains only uncertainty on top of uncertainty.

TEc - The dating game - China's rise

Well done!
Simple and easy for any layman to understand what is going on regarding China's largely perceived rise to economic prominence.
Readers are afforded fiddling to their liking with two variables that sum up economic performance thus obtaining different overtaking year-dates.

One assumption, however, goes unmentioned but is internally concocted(!?) as a certainty: China will sooner rather than later become the world's biggest economy ending the long presidency of the United States of America.
It has lasted well over a century until China woke up from a long slumber to make the ongoing impressive dash to the top.
While common folk don't quite understand yet what the implications are/will be - they can't be blamed for that anyway - I often wonder if American leadership generally does. And if so, what action will it undertake to at least hold US ground.
Not by seeking to arrest China's inexorable growth but aiming to achieve and keep a decent second.
Or keep the number one spot for as long as decent growth in a mature market/economy may assure?

Far too many questions remain unanswered in the tectonic shifts brought about by gobalisation as has taken hold.
Maybe they will not get asked until it becomes self-evident what follows from economic decadence.

TEc - Running out of steam - Asia's ascent

The future is not predictable with accuracy yet trendlines and historical data provide useful clues.
When it is about countries as collective entities - each one being a rather complex reality on its own - fast paced development is fuelled by internal as well as external variables.
Both these remain largely favourable to fast economic growth even if slower than up to now.

Besides, Asia is not a homogeneous bloc that moves forward unhindered by what happens internally within each country and elsewhere.
It does share one important specific characteristic: emerging economies possess vast untapped potential both in demography and unfulfilled needs.
This is totally unlike countries that already reached developed status long ago such as Japan and the original Asian tigers to a lesser degree.

I would group Asian countries into three tiers: developed, middle-income developing fast and low-income developing very fast.
All together make up the world's fastest growing continent with the greatest potential to keep growing for many years to come.

It is way too soon to claim that their rise is running steamless as much as overstating that ascent in the longer run.

TEc asks - Will Britain avoid a second recession?

Sadly I have voted No knowing that chances are high a technical recession is in the offing, if only briefly.
It has been an unfolding never-ending saga in the Eurozone where prospects remain uncertain at the very least.
Britain's economic performance largely hinges on how the Euro crisis and its fallout play out over the course of 2012.

Unlike Germany's broad based industrial sector ever ready to deliver the goods to willing buyers, Britain's strengths and outreach are considerably more limited.
Financial services regardless of their size can hardly make a bigger contribution than they already made over the boom years.

The underlying question is how to get excessively debt-ridden countries - Britain included - on the path to sound economic growth.
I would hope to see some solid answers come in over 2012.

TEc - Trading places

A very significant milestone no doubt.
It may be regarded as a welcome development that suggests a better balanced world broadly understood to mean more evenly spread purchasing power across countries.

Nevertheless, it is worrisome to realise this is a combination of a positive and a negative. The positive is of course growing disposable personal incomes in emerging economies. The negative is the seemingly excessive contraction taking place in many developed economies.
While the former should be seen as a natural development in absolute and relative terms, the latter if unchecked is very disturbing indeed.
Slow or near stagnant growth is often a logical consequence of mature markets in developed nations.

More balanced global trade flows are only a reflection of current and a decade-long of economic performance worldwide. Itself a consequence of re-location, globalisation, absolute free trade, free western-market access and free capital flows.
They disguise the fact that individual countries are facing severe overall downturns and poor prospects.
Feeling the pinch much harder than others with little or no room for manoeuvre.