FT - Trump's top trade adviser accuses Germany of currency exploitation - a viewpoint that commands thought

There are any number of ways to look at all the issues related to international trade. Yet I believe a few hard facts will have to be accepted largely undisputed regardless of the messenger:

1.The US has every right reason to worry about its ever bulging massive trade deficit that has disproportionately benefited China, Germany or Mexico. To label as protectionism every move a sovereign country makes to reduce longstanding eye-popping imbalances is simply wrong. Free trade is only so good as long as there are winners only. Not permanent winners and permanent losers that do not swap places.
When oversized surpluses are met by equally oversized deficits I take it can only last for a given period. Needless to point out the reasons, I would imagine.
At the end of the day, the wealth of nations is broadly at stake.
Current German leadership is smartly aware of it and has therefore chosen to keep a low, meek profile while reaping the rewards from multiple sources.

2.Germany has indeed been the one country to have profited the most from the Euro and globalisation of trade as has taken root. Eurozone woes remain as structural as ever with southern European nations struggling to get out of a very tight spot, mainly the regions' smaller economies. All has been said and written about the imbalances within the Eurozone but so far none has been addressed in earnest. Remarkably, to this day the view from Berlin is entirely different!

3.Tellingly, the world's most ardent supporter of globalisation is China, likely the single country to have benefited the most from it. Germany dug in solidly in an enlarged EU single market and selling China every capital and premium goods it wanted to buy.

Whatever the arguments made by the new American administration, I am in no doubt - and have been in a long while - that something has got to change to restore critical balances in trade flows around the world.

TEc - Fuel Folly - elevating risk to the highest level

Every air accident is a sad event - or any accident for that matter - but this one is sadder than most. The facts are pretty much exposed and hardly anything further is needed to reach a crystal clear conclusion: there can be no cutting corners when it comes to aircraft and flying. It is as simple as that, a longtime established fact - indeed since the dawn of aviation - that DOES NOT require any evidence whatsoever.
Because when it does show it takes the form of outrageous tragedies such as this one.
Then, there is the usual set of contributing fateful factors.
An accident that should never have been in the first place.

Flying remains the safest mode of transport by far, by all measurable accounts. But it is bound to fare the worst when human recklessness kicks in regardless of all else.

Precious lives have been cut short on a hillside in Colombia very close to their intended destination.
In this particular case, BASIC common-sense SAFETY was grotesquely bypassed. It cannot be underlined enough.

As always, there are accidents and accidents. Common to all is that every single one demands factual analysis to determine causes, contribute to further learning and importantly, prevent future recurrences.

TEc - The road to Brexit - Which road will it be?

Brexit is the topic of the day for learned opinion-makers as well as laymen across the length and breadth of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
As it is the political fallout has been immense following a popular decision whose economic repercussions are beginning to sink in. The value of pound sterling is up to now the major practical barometer of things to come in a worst-case-scenario.Words such as hard or soft are commonly used to gauge the wide gap of possible consequences to the British economy.At the end of the day my own assessment indicates that it very much remains very early days to substantively assess anything at all. Even the currency's crash may be down to nervousness rather than a perceived deterioration of the UK's future trading conditions.Why then the rush of bad news when hardly anything is known about the UK's future relationship with the other 27 countries of the European Union? As the current UK government feels the ground ahead of invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the European Commission and several heads of government have publicly voiced their views.I am ever amazed at how unprepared hardline Brexiteers seemingly were about their case as much as the apparently orchestrated punishing statements made by leaders of Europe's other relevant nations hellbent(?) on exacting an expensive price on Britons for their irresponsible folly(?).Few seem to take the moderate constructive path that will ensure a positive outcome for UK citizens, European citizens at large and, above all, Europe as a geographic, cultural, economic and military bloc. Yet, that would seem to me the only acceptable way forward in the new context.If Democracy is the foundation, the cornerstone of the European edifice then it need be fully upheld and respected especially so when outcomes do not conform to the expected. Such is the case after the In/Out UK referendum result became known regardless of late discussions about the merits/demerits of calling for one on an issue as complex.The UK's future is neither as bleak as some are painting it to be nor as rosy as others would wish the rest of us to believe.Voting to quit the EU was a deeply political choice with major economic and social implications.Politicians on both sides of the Channel must rise up to the challenges and hammer out the best deal for the UK and the remaining 27 members of the EU.A potential lose a lot-lose something must be turned into a win-win for the benefit of Europe as a whole.

TEc - How to not spend it - Norway's style of handling of wealth

There is so much countries around the world can learn from Norway.
Despite sitting atop a massive pile of cash Norwegians take the long-term approach to managing their natural bounty. Prudence seems to be the key word that garners widespread support among citizenry, decision-makers and most politicians alike.
Suggestions on how best to invest revenue from such a mountain of capital, or part of the capital itself, will always swirl around but to this day cautious, should I say wise, management of the Fund has prevailed.
Of course this bodes well for future generations of Norwegians and Norway as a country/State.
Through the highs and lows of oil prices and its eventual depletion, through the thicks and thins of Norway's collective economic life, the mammoth sovereign-wealth fund has been, is and will continue to be a source of national strength and reassurance.
For now it remains in very safe hands whose rational minds have steered the Fund to ever greater heights!

TEc - GDP forecasts for 2016 - what should we make of forecasts?

Forecasts by and large remain truthful to themselves only. Forecasts they are and should thus be taken at face value, no more no less.

In the recent past so-called credible institutions produced heaps of forecasts that soon proved to be grossly erroneous misleading professionals and commoners alike.
I have come to believe that such predictions and the frequency of their release aim to become pressure tools rather than the mere hypothetical pointers that they will forever be.

TEc - May time - A new PM takes over

TEc has made it crystal clear where it stood before and after the referendum. As a specialist newspaper on matters pertaining to the economy its dominant line is unapologetically tilted away from pure politics.
Yet the new PM faces the daunting task of gathering many tasks together to then arrive at sensible policies acceptable to both the EU and the UK as a whole. Most of them inherently political in nature. Scotland and Northern Ireland, despite their scale and specificities, cannot be side-stepped at any point in time. A first signal was already given by TMay's early visit to Edinburgh.

The question mark that looms large is whether or not the UK's relevant sticking points are compatible with a EU whose main tenets consistently jeopardise those very points.
Can they ever be made compatible?
My point is that they have to.
The UK is important enough to continental Europe to turn it into a mere case of conditioned access to the single-market. Conversely, the EU, for all its current failings as seen by hard-line Brexiteers, is critical to the UK far more than the 450M+ internal consumer market would suggest.
This is why I can only envisage high Politics eventually taking centre stage during negotiations regardless of how hard or protracted.
When it comes to the nitty gritty of actual decisions being made both sides must bear in mind their relative weight set against a far larger backdrop of European peace, security and the welfare of citizenry across the UK and the EU.

TEc - Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom vie to become Britain's next PM - tough job looming

´Political science in the making´ would be a good label for the fallout from the In/Out Referendum.
150.000 Conservative party members will now decide between two women who backed the opposing sides of the argument. The winner will have the unenviable task of delivering on any number of fronts for the greater good of the UK.
For all the relevant cabinet experience that they may have, at the end of the day it should matter politically the very views each held during the campaign. The result may also show the depth of anti-EU feeling among the party faithful - irrespective of the Parliamentary group - or their wish to soften the stance in view of post-referendum consequences to the British economy and society already felt.
Bottom line is the UK has placed itself in a reasonably tight spot. One that calls for the leadership to show a fair amount of pragmatism, knowledge and ability to compromise. They will have to sail the country through what may only be described as unchartered territory where headwinds are likely to be met.