quinta-feira, 12 de maio de 2016
quinta-feira, 5 de maio de 2016
TEc - Trading places - Trade-averse opinion surfaces because of the TTIP agreement?
TTIP - Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
There is no aversion to global trade as such. There is, and rightly so, deep-rooted concern that the international trading system is somehow rigged. Is it not?
This has pushed countries to compete against each other on a hugely unlevelled playing field whose framework is invisible to most except to the insiders who actually set it up.
No matter how it is looked at, enough pointers are seen showing imbalances causing a handful of countries emerging as clear winners while others have become recurrent losers.
That the stakes are high cannot be overstated. It only took a little over a decade to produce massive changes to trade flows. Consequently, to production centres, tangible wealth of nations and the current account balances of many a country.
Europe and America still remain the world's most important trading blocs but their relative weight is on the wane. Europe in particular shows multiple weaknesses as its manufacturing has been continually eroded, the exception being Germany and a few smaller countries around it.
Trade is the cornerstone of wealth creation, economic growth and development. Trade deals - bilateral or multilateral - must be hammered out to reflect the interests of all parties concerned as measured by volumes, figures achieved and communities benefited.
Should imbalances arise then the deals need to be reviewed or scrapped altogether.
The TTIP is stirring disquiet in the heartland of Europe's trading powerhouse.
There must be sound reasons for that.
This has pushed countries to compete against each other on a hugely unlevelled playing field whose framework is invisible to most except to the insiders who actually set it up.
No matter how it is looked at, enough pointers are seen showing imbalances causing a handful of countries emerging as clear winners while others have become recurrent losers.
That the stakes are high cannot be overstated. It only took a little over a decade to produce massive changes to trade flows. Consequently, to production centres, tangible wealth of nations and the current account balances of many a country.
Europe and America still remain the world's most important trading blocs but their relative weight is on the wane. Europe in particular shows multiple weaknesses as its manufacturing has been continually eroded, the exception being Germany and a few smaller countries around it.
Trade is the cornerstone of wealth creation, economic growth and development. Trade deals - bilateral or multilateral - must be hammered out to reflect the interests of all parties concerned as measured by volumes, figures achieved and communities benefited.
Should imbalances arise then the deals need to be reviewed or scrapped altogether.
The TTIP is stirring disquiet in the heartland of Europe's trading powerhouse.
There must be sound reasons for that.
quinta-feira, 28 de abril de 2016
TEc - Spanish steps - uncertain future for Portuguese banks
It is hard to even begin to contemplate the pitiful state of Portuguese banking.
Indeed, I saw some of it coming years ago perhaps because the people in charge were telling the rest of us that the banking system was rock-solid. Yet, it would have caught the attention of more than a few that loans were being given to the wrong people by the wrong hands. Banks and the political establishment have in Portugal gone to bed time and again since long.
Still, I am awed by the sheer scale of the problems as one bank after another - previously deemed as reputable - has simply collapsed. The costs keep piling up further straining already fully stretched public finances despite repeated assurances that taxpayers would/will not pick up the bill.
As things stand nobody knows what will be made of Portuguese banking into the near future. Whether in the hands of larger Spanish banks or the filthy-rich Angolan few, genuine home-grown Portuguese banks held by Portuguese capital look set to shrink further.
To cap it all there are the rather tricky issues arising from the Angolan connection. And the ways its government/leadership finds of exercising power over their uneasy former colonial masters through means close on not-so-sophisticated nepotism.
Nevertheless, the main blame lies squarely in-house with bankers who failed their own folk and country miserably.
The last few lines of the article sum it up beautifully as is invariably the case in a multitude of issues across the board.
Indeed, I saw some of it coming years ago perhaps because the people in charge were telling the rest of us that the banking system was rock-solid. Yet, it would have caught the attention of more than a few that loans were being given to the wrong people by the wrong hands. Banks and the political establishment have in Portugal gone to bed time and again since long.
Still, I am awed by the sheer scale of the problems as one bank after another - previously deemed as reputable - has simply collapsed. The costs keep piling up further straining already fully stretched public finances despite repeated assurances that taxpayers would/will not pick up the bill.
As things stand nobody knows what will be made of Portuguese banking into the near future. Whether in the hands of larger Spanish banks or the filthy-rich Angolan few, genuine home-grown Portuguese banks held by Portuguese capital look set to shrink further.
To cap it all there are the rather tricky issues arising from the Angolan connection. And the ways its government/leadership finds of exercising power over their uneasy former colonial masters through means close on not-so-sophisticated nepotism.
Nevertheless, the main blame lies squarely in-house with bankers who failed their own folk and country miserably.
The last few lines of the article sum it up beautifully as is invariably the case in a multitude of issues across the board.
quinta-feira, 31 de março de 2016
TEc - No, thank you - Is the UK economy condemned to industrial irrelevancy?
A brief overview of Britain's steel industry is made here that provides enough food for thought.
The wider issue that afflicts many other developed economies is how best to counter the overriding Chinese threat - a country that is able to mass-produce just about everything at cutaway prices. As is plainly clear that too because it does not abide by the same rules as in countries/societies whose industries have in a long time had to factor in costs Chinese firms may simply overlook. Not to mention latter-day pollution related charges.
But as China itself becomes wealthier and increasingly developed, production costs and social and political demands there will inevitably rise.
The wider issue that afflicts many other developed economies is how best to counter the overriding Chinese threat - a country that is able to mass-produce just about everything at cutaway prices. As is plainly clear that too because it does not abide by the same rules as in countries/societies whose industries have in a long time had to factor in costs Chinese firms may simply overlook. Not to mention latter-day pollution related charges.
But as China itself becomes wealthier and increasingly developed, production costs and social and political demands there will inevitably rise.
In a world that is far from showing willingness to build a level-playing-field for companies/sectors/economies to compete, how then is steel-making to survive in higher-cost countries such as the UK? Some costs likely need to be reduced but never will overall production costs reach levels achieved in places where general standards are much lower across the board.
How does Germany still manage to display remarkable stability of its mighty industrial sector despite being a high-cost country as well?
Is the UK condemned to watch helplessly the eventual closure of its largest steel mill?
How does Germany still manage to display remarkable stability of its mighty industrial sector despite being a high-cost country as well?
Is the UK condemned to watch helplessly the eventual closure of its largest steel mill?
Strictly going by market-economy purists, tariffs are not to be slapped just as any type of seemingly protectionist measures remain off bounds.
What they fail to mention is that there are enough distortions upstream and far too much at stake downstream if the UK is to attach any relevance at all to what is left of its industrial sector - core industries and manufacturing.
What they fail to mention is that there are enough distortions upstream and far too much at stake downstream if the UK is to attach any relevance at all to what is left of its industrial sector - core industries and manufacturing.
segunda-feira, 14 de março de 2016
TEc - Three regional elections have radically changed Germany's political landscape - wakeup call
Moderates from across the German political spectrum - at Federal as well as Lander level - would do well to read carefully into the three regional election results.
It is a first democratic warning that there is growing disquiet among ordinary Germans concerning policies Angela Merkel has pushed through unabashedly lately. It cannot all be dismissed to populist party politics that has drawn so many to a newly set-up construct voicing legitimate societal concerns. Failure to notice the writing on the wall will only fuel further future support for politicians who catch the mood of large sections of the nation regardless.The fact that Germany remains on a sound economic footing, and average Germans do not need to worry as much as their fellow Europeans to varying degrees, does not warrant unchecked support for the parties in the federal coalition government.
More so at a time when there are any number of major issues that need to be addressed concurrently.
And variables that must be weighed in at the very least.
quinta-feira, 25 de fevereiro de 2016
TEc - Boris Johnson is wrong: in the 21st century, sovereignty is always relative - I do agree but there is a recurrent English nag on Europe
A remarkably balanced article that is as 21st century attuned as it is wise.
A referendum on such issues is never a soft option. On the contrary, DC raised the stakes to a level he could no longer backtrack from. Indeed, he is only delivering on his own election campaign pledge.
For the British people at large a new opportunity has arisen, yet again, to express their views hopefully from as informed a standpoint as possible. If all the pros and cons of EU membership are balanced against the reality of a fast changed globalized world then I wonder which way majority opinion will sway.
The very outcome as measured by voter turnout and the gap between the Ins and Outs will provide insightful information on UK public sentiment towards the EU.
In the meantime there remain 4 months for citizens to seek enlightment and make their minds up.
That said, however, I have long understood British - should I say English (?) - disquiet about the EU. All suspicion aggravated by the messy state of affairs in Europe underscored by Brussels reaction to multiple events especially in the aftermath of the 2007/8 financial meltdown. And rather disheartening clearly differentiated handling of nations large and small.
Essentially it is an internal question that needs to get sorted out by the UK's political body and people.A referendum on such issues is never a soft option. On the contrary, DC raised the stakes to a level he could no longer backtrack from. Indeed, he is only delivering on his own election campaign pledge.
For the British people at large a new opportunity has arisen, yet again, to express their views hopefully from as informed a standpoint as possible. If all the pros and cons of EU membership are balanced against the reality of a fast changed globalized world then I wonder which way majority opinion will sway.
The very outcome as measured by voter turnout and the gap between the Ins and Outs will provide insightful information on UK public sentiment towards the EU.
In the meantime there remain 4 months for citizens to seek enlightment and make their minds up.
sábado, 5 de dezembro de 2015
TEc - "Light at the end of a long, dark tunnel" - Misleading heading
A fellow reader has named the article's title a misnomer. I fully agree.
Glancing through the edition's highlights I came upon this title and thought to myself there must be some optimism here. Disappointed I was and remained at the end of it!
There is none whatsoever. Zimbabwe is vividly described as a land of hell on earth where the only bright spot is the ruler's old-age-related frailty and what it entails into the near future. The power struggle already raging to find his successor is reported as vicious and unscrupulous. The omens are not good.
Therefore the tunnel may only grow longer if not darker still!
Zimbabwe's path to its current plight has been long and tortuous. Indeed the country has remained in a seemingly never-ending tunnel that is darker than most. For all the regime's rhetoric since 1980, but especially from 1990, there appears to be little it can show for itself.
Or am I utterly misled by my news sources(?) - I have wondered time and again...
Whatever the case, an entire country and its people face continued hardship and political turmoil. The only beneficiaries being a tiny minority of a few thousand who disproportionately split the spoils among themselves despite their lofty public speeches.
I can only hope that a point in time will be reached when Western economic sanctions in place will be reviewed - have they achieved their aims? - every issue properly put in context, genuine African grievances taken into account and a new start attempted, at the very least.
Wishful thinking?
Or is a failed State allowed to fail ever more in a downward spiral that effectively blights the future of millions?
Glancing through the edition's highlights I came upon this title and thought to myself there must be some optimism here. Disappointed I was and remained at the end of it!
There is none whatsoever. Zimbabwe is vividly described as a land of hell on earth where the only bright spot is the ruler's old-age-related frailty and what it entails into the near future. The power struggle already raging to find his successor is reported as vicious and unscrupulous. The omens are not good.
Therefore the tunnel may only grow longer if not darker still!
Zimbabwe's path to its current plight has been long and tortuous. Indeed the country has remained in a seemingly never-ending tunnel that is darker than most. For all the regime's rhetoric since 1980, but especially from 1990, there appears to be little it can show for itself.
Or am I utterly misled by my news sources(?) - I have wondered time and again...
Whatever the case, an entire country and its people face continued hardship and political turmoil. The only beneficiaries being a tiny minority of a few thousand who disproportionately split the spoils among themselves despite their lofty public speeches.
I can only hope that a point in time will be reached when Western economic sanctions in place will be reviewed - have they achieved their aims? - every issue properly put in context, genuine African grievances taken into account and a new start attempted, at the very least.
Wishful thinking?
Or is a failed State allowed to fail ever more in a downward spiral that effectively blights the future of millions?
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In fact, Airbus' rise to world prominence in less than half a century is a major achievement industrial Europe can justly feel proud of.
There used to be a monopoly in commercial planemaking, now a duopoly has been firmly established since long. Arguably, two smaller makers from Canada and Brazil are nibbling hard at the regional jets segment while aiming higher as well.
Other countries such as China, Japan and Russia want a piece of the action too. Small entrants they may now be but if Airbus itself is anything to go by, are we headed for increased competition and multiple suppliers vying for a slice of the pie?
Far removed it sounds for now. Both Boeing and Airbus should, however, take note that their de facto duopoly may eventually be broken up.
What is unclear is the commercial fate of outsized wide-bodies such as the B747-8 and the A380. Airbus initiated the contest by setting in motion the A3XX program gambling heavily on its much vented view that the civil aviation market was asking for large volumes carried over long distances. This would bring unit costs down to minimums, the ultimate objective of very large aircraft.
After the first bout of large orders, especially from Middle-Eastern carriers and a few incumbent flag airlines, the order books appear to record no more.
It might be a temporary market reassessment made by the airline industry before a new sizing up of fleets to take on the many expected first-time travellers from emerging countries?
Answers will soon be found.
Lastly, the cost overruns of Boeing's Dreamliner program is staggering beyond belief. Ambitious projects to develop and apply new materials and technologies commonly demand more money but a +5 multiplier is well outside any reasonable scale.