terça-feira, 15 de fevereiro de 2011
TEc "When allies tumble" - President Mubarak's downfall has begun
Which way Egypt's not-so-quiet-revolution(?) in the making is headed for looks like an unknown variable.
To me this is indeed the most critical aspect of the ongoing popular outburst bringing so many out on the streets.
Authoritarian leaders never seem to realize when to step down on their own. It generally takes a coup d'etat enacted from within by the military or a people-power triggered upheaval to eventually push them out.
President Mubarak - who's not known, to the best of my knowledge, for being ruthless or despotic - seems himself surprised that his country should have come to this.
The coming weeks or months will provide new facts but Egypt is not likely to go back to old-style politics again.
The American Administration, wisely enough, is taking a cautious approach.From a stance that accounts for every other regional political implication. An uncontrolled process in Egypt might ripple across the Middle East in multiple ways. Undesired at the very least.
Lastly, Mubarak stayed put in Cairo interacting with successive Administrations over 30 years as America's key ally in the region.
He saw them in and out of office in Washington as only Democracies may deliver.
I wonder whether any American President since 1986 (or 1991) ever hinted Mubarak that he should move Egypt towards genuine democratic rule...