sexta-feira, 11 de janeiro de 2013
TEc asks - Will the world economy be in better shape in 2013 than in 2012? - The answer lies in which part of the world you're on.
I have chosen not to vote because the question is hardly answerable in straightforward fashion.
The world economy does not move in a given direction as one monolithic bloc of economies.
In fact, most of the winning countries of the past decades - the so-called emerging economies - will continue to surge forward posting healthy growth.
The traditional industrial economies of the West - North America, Europe and Japan - each remain mired in their own specific troubles contributing to negative to no-growth to very sluggish rates of growth at best. Europe has been and predictably will continue to fare the worst. The Eurozone in particular is far from nearing anything like economic renaissance it so direly needs. Not until new paths are found to the creation of productive wealth.
Europe's battering is multiple ranging from various internal conditions to the new world economic order objectively underway since 2000 at least. The rise of the rest is now very tangible while Europe looks lost in more ways than one.
However, the economy being an inexact science, there could better outcomes in the second half of 2013 for Europe even for its main current-day laggards.
If I could split the question into several I would say that the emerging world will be in a better shape.
The traditionally advanced economies may or may not find themselves better off. A countrywide multicoloured reality will present itself nonetheless.
Germany is likely to putter along while Italy and Spain will struggle through another tough year.
Hopefully on balance Europe will still manage to show some positive movement.