It has so far been based on sound judgment, moderation and in-depth knowledge of relevant variables at play in the Arab and wider Muslim world.
domingo, 29 de maio de 2011
TEc debate motion "This house believes that the West should keep out of the Arab world's revolutions" - Why I mostly lean to agree.
By and large I agree with the motion statement but would add that President Obama's approach to ongoing cries for freedom seems the right one.
It has so far been based on sound judgment, moderation and in-depth knowledge of relevant variables at play in the Arab and wider Muslim world.
It has so far been based on sound judgment, moderation and in-depth knowledge of relevant variables at play in the Arab and wider Muslim world.
Rash assessments and decisions may sound appealing to many on opposing sides but would certainly trigger unintended results. These would ultimately run counterproductive to the essential goal of an orderly transition to Democracy in those societies so vividly yearning for it.
It takes time, patience and a clever mix of soft and hard power. Above all a longer-term vision that does not contribute to power voids eventually leading to failing States.
I believe the West should mostly stay out adopting a measured response whenever deemed fit of an often unpredictable unfolding situation.
To my mind the American Administration is doing the right thing for the right reasons.
TEc "Catching up" - India-Africa courtship
India's African credentials date back to many centuries, indeed to the days when Indian, African and Arab Kingdoms traded along Africa's east coastline. Long before the arrival of Europeans to the Indian Ocean.
Later, history would place them on the same side notably in South Africa as a result of objective State-sponsored social discrimination and shared political oppression. To different degrees, it must be said.
Later, history would place them on the same side notably in South Africa as a result of objective State-sponsored social discrimination and shared political oppression. To different degrees, it must be said.
As a sovereign State independent India stood up for African emancipation from colonial rule.
It is fair to say that the country did its best - despite severe home constraints as pointed out by The Economist - to promote African rule which was finally achieved across the Continent since the nineties.
It is fair to say that the country did its best - despite severe home constraints as pointed out by The Economist - to promote African rule which was finally achieved across the Continent since the nineties.
India's economic reforms and liberalization enacted in the early nineties produced an upbeat nation posting hefty growth rates.
Going forward a new rapport is called for that takes into account mutual social, economic and material gain.
India can deliver on multiple fields at competitive cost to suit needs felt across Africa. Many companies are already doing what they know best to engage with African markets profitably, boosting still rather meager two-way trade figures.
Going forward a new rapport is called for that takes into account mutual social, economic and material gain.
India can deliver on multiple fields at competitive cost to suit needs felt across Africa. Many companies are already doing what they know best to engage with African markets profitably, boosting still rather meager two-way trade figures.
India's African push need not be seen as a contest with China or indeed any other country or trading bloc.
Africa's interest - that of most of its individual countries - lies squarely with seeking to advance trade ties with the wide world. From a negotiating position that identifies and promotes every fast-track to social, economic and infra-structural development.
Africa's interest - that of most of its individual countries - lies squarely with seeking to advance trade ties with the wide world. From a negotiating position that identifies and promotes every fast-track to social, economic and infra-structural development.
India, on the other hand, has shown the world that an overpopulated poor country has turned itself into a fast rising star able to deliver. On its own merits and strengths.
Economic prospects there have never been as bright.
That necessarily spells an ever increasing profile, ambition and reach over the coming decades.
Economic prospects there have never been as bright.
That necessarily spells an ever increasing profile, ambition and reach over the coming decades.
terça-feira, 24 de maio de 2011
TEc "Strong core pain in the periphery" - It isn't quite like that.
Clearly what we now have in the EU is a three-speed league.
Core countries are not doing equally well as the title to this article might suggest. Discrepancies are wide enough that have economies performing significantly differently across multiple criteria.
The real pain, however, falls on the - for this purpose - ultra-peripheral nations of Greece, Portugal and Ireland knocked over by a combination of home negatives that converged now but each built up over many years. Plus the fact that they are smaller economies, therefore more prone to getting pushed around.
Where size truly matters is best seen in so far as the UK is concerned - strengths being the long term maturity of its debts, the pound sterling as a sovereign currency and growth potential as perceived by the markets. Also, the resolve displayed by the current UK government to aggressively rein in public finances.
Core countries are not doing equally well as the title to this article might suggest. Discrepancies are wide enough that have economies performing significantly differently across multiple criteria.
The real pain, however, falls on the - for this purpose - ultra-peripheral nations of Greece, Portugal and Ireland knocked over by a combination of home negatives that converged now but each built up over many years. Plus the fact that they are smaller economies, therefore more prone to getting pushed around.
Where size truly matters is best seen in so far as the UK is concerned - strengths being the long term maturity of its debts, the pound sterling as a sovereign currency and growth potential as perceived by the markets. Also, the resolve displayed by the current UK government to aggressively rein in public finances.
The troubled threesome have got their hands tied behind their backs unable to implement any counter-cyclical measures just when they were needed most. Vital breathing space having been all but eliminated in exchange for bailouts whose outcomes are far from straightforward. Greece is already a case in point.
The larger Euro-zone for its part is by no means out of the woods yet.
The insatiable nature of financial markets, ill-advised by obscure rating agencies, makes any attempt at prediction a worthless exercise.
While the troubled three will eventually muddle through market spotlight is going to shift to other indebted countries.
If Spain or Belgium should be targeted next something very powerful will have to be done to secure the Euro as we've known it since birth.
Or an unconditional surrender by EU politicians ensues.
And former grand European ideals fall flat under the winning streak of mighty financial markets.
Their unorthodox ways driven solely by time, opportunity and quick profit overpowering all else.
The insatiable nature of financial markets, ill-advised by obscure rating agencies, makes any attempt at prediction a worthless exercise.
While the troubled three will eventually muddle through market spotlight is going to shift to other indebted countries.
If Spain or Belgium should be targeted next something very powerful will have to be done to secure the Euro as we've known it since birth.
Or an unconditional surrender by EU politicians ensues.
And former grand European ideals fall flat under the winning streak of mighty financial markets.
Their unorthodox ways driven solely by time, opportunity and quick profit overpowering all else.
quarta-feira, 18 de maio de 2011
TEc "Trichet the intransigent" - Jean Claude is about to go but he sticks to his views
The way the Greek sovereign-debt crisis unfolded itself shows a winding dark path to pitfall.
The more likely outcome of a long agony dragging a country of +11m down the road of despair is shrouded in thick layers of cynicism, delay and uncertainty.
The only known quantity that stands out is one of doom and gloom beyond anything that might have been conjured up as recently as last year.
The more likely outcome of a long agony dragging a country of +11m down the road of despair is shrouded in thick layers of cynicism, delay and uncertainty.
The only known quantity that stands out is one of doom and gloom beyond anything that might have been conjured up as recently as last year.
Where is Greece and the larger Euro zone heading for?
Is anybody, from top politicians to top economists, truly able to answer that one question?
Is anybody, from top politicians to top economists, truly able to answer that one question?
Apparently not.
No matter how highly qualified and opinionated, every written or spoken argument exchanged so far only adds to the mess already created.
Proposals put forward to eventually arresting the Greek crisis look like the lesser evil among others.
A cycle of negativity has set in that promises to further undermine the future of the Euro zone-17, particularly the threesome of highly indebted nations with sluggish near-term growth prospects at best.
No matter how highly qualified and opinionated, every written or spoken argument exchanged so far only adds to the mess already created.
Proposals put forward to eventually arresting the Greek crisis look like the lesser evil among others.
A cycle of negativity has set in that promises to further undermine the future of the Euro zone-17, particularly the threesome of highly indebted nations with sluggish near-term growth prospects at best.
How then to break free from the shackles of adding debt to pay for debt while economies go into free fall?
For Greece and Portugal multiple negative factors have lined up simultaneously to make a bad situation even worse:
high commodity prices, high interest rates (with the ECB aiming to raise them further), an undisturbed Euro riding high on the strength of growing economies to the north, a direction-less EU no longer focused on set collective goals, etc.
In Portugal's case add political limbo to all of that at least until the next - hopefully strong - administration takes over.
high commodity prices, high interest rates (with the ECB aiming to raise them further), an undisturbed Euro riding high on the strength of growing economies to the north, a direction-less EU no longer focused on set collective goals, etc.
In Portugal's case add political limbo to all of that at least until the next - hopefully strong - administration takes over.
The EU, the ECB, the European Commission do not seem to lead whatever. All look perilously flimsy at the mercy of events they do not remotely control.
It is as if events force themselves in after protracted painful process.
Then only institutions grudgingly adapt to them, when left optionless.
It is as if events force themselves in after protracted painful process.
Then only institutions grudgingly adapt to them, when left optionless.
We may still see the day that the ECB is made to change how it views the restructuring of Greece's burdensome debt.
quinta-feira, 5 de maio de 2011
TEc "IAI - IsraeliAircraftIndustries takes wing" - When small can achieve big.
That a small country with a 7.5m population should possess a sophisticated defence industry at all speaks loud for Israeli achievement. Born to military and security needs no doubt but remarkable in every way nonetheless.
Outside of industry insiders few are actually aware Israel boasts a multibillion dollar company such as IAI. Operating at the forefront of technology and manufacturing offering prized and skilled employment to many.
Also, conferring a higher profile to a country too often associated with relying entirely on US financial assistance and hardware supplies.
Also, conferring a higher profile to a country too often associated with relying entirely on US financial assistance and hardware supplies.
What the article brings out is that small countries with obvious size/scale limitations may also rank among the majors even on 'tough' sectors as plane-making.
And IAF is about much more than aircraft.
And IAF is about much more than aircraft.
Subscrever:
Mensagens (Atom)