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Lisboa, Portugal
Nasci no dia 11 de Junho de 1964 na cidade da Beira, MOÇAMBIQUE.

A Estação dos CFM, Beira

A Estação dos CFM, Beira
Ex-libris da cidade, 1966

The Euro, as a single currency, should be abolished

Another black and white motion statement leaving me no option but to choose No.
While I agree to the first part I am not prepared to contemplate the idea that the Euro should get abolished.
Abolished? Then what?
All 17 countries now sharing the single currency would revert back to their old monies?
Or a new version of yesteryear's currencies?

Simplistic as I made it out to be packed in a few odd questions, every single serious economic, financial and social consequence is inextricably wrapped up within each.
That is where the stakes are high enough to ensure that the Euro is given a new lease on life.
It calls for closer European integration.
What form and shape this will take is for policymakers and far-sighted politicians to grasp and propose.

It would seem to me that the Euro has many underlying strengths but will not - contrary to the founder's beliefs - assure convergence between all the economies it services. How could it?
The divide has been felt acutely lately (1-2 years) the logical consequence of relevant economic under-performance among member-countries.

There has obviously got to be a political solution rooted in realistic economic fundamentals.
The road traveled so far proved artificially smooth during the first 10 years I dare say but unsurprisingly very bumpy in the last 1-2.
It could not have been otherwise given the structural differences setting these countries apart. And excessive spending pursued mostly by a few Southern European States who could not see beyond the present.
Adherence to the Maastricht criteria never again seemed to be taken seriously once countries landed themselves inside the Euro club. Not to mention Greece that never fulfilled the criteria in the first place or ever bothered to balance its books.

Very disappointing to admit but the Euro Zone is indeed right in the middle of a storm testing its main crews to the limit.
The latest summit decisions seem to indicate that where there is a will there is a way.
It may have just been one first small step in the right direction.

The specifics are very hard to work on.
Yet it would seem to me that the 17-member Euro Zone and the larger EU can hardly afford shooting down the Euro.
The broader picture needs to come into full view.
An hypothetical demise of the single currency would deal another severe blow to Europe's economic fortunes.
Its relative decline vis-a-vis the rest of the world would get a further boost.

I do not like misplaced calls for solidarity from Southerners but would rather see the stronger half of the dividing line realize where their medium-to-long interest lies.
To that end many balances across the Euro Zone need to be restored at the earliest.

Europe agrees a "shock and awe" bailout for Greece

A rescue package of epic proportions, epic challenges for the Greek government and people, epic uncertainties and epic stakes for the single-currency.

It was the Euro's defence that ultimately forced politicians from Germany to Malta to perform a hard balancing act whose overall success is far from assured.Each finance minister has enough reasons to fret and grumble about.It being the Euro as a common currency, because of Greece despite Greece.
Up to now every 'least damaging' approach failed miserably to cool down the financial markets that remained as unimpressed as ever throughout.
For its part Greece is effectively the main winner in this high-finance gamble.The country bought time the markets were not willing to give it once confidence vanished.Precious time desperately needed to restore credibility and good governance at home.
A daunting internal fix with daunting external implications.
Three full years is what the government and Greek society top-down and bottom-up now have to set the record straight in so many ways.
Literally and figuratively.

For the other 15 Eurozone countries - each facing own troubles to varying degrees - keeping fingers crossed would be mild to describe the monitoring of Greece's performance over the coming 36 months.Potentially they are all losers, starting out by losing simply to avoid bigger losses!
There are so many relevant questions that might be asked to which full answers ought to be provided.
They won't get asked or get answered.
Tellingly, each and every single one of them would now seem rhetorical or at best an exercise for academia.

The spectre that haunts Europe

I am still hopeful that Greece will not require a bail-out in whatever form pinning my hopes on the PM's own words.

He did sound very bold and brave in the face of such overwhelming odds but until a deal is actually in place I would rather believe the Greeks can and will take care of themselves.

My stance is wholly based not on immediate needs triggered by the Western financial meltdown that led to the economic downturn.This in turn led to a collapse in tax revenues across countries caused by economies shrinking badly.

To a large extent Greece is indeed a one-off case-study for the worst reasons, its latest fiscal deficit the sum total of profligate spending, widespread cultural-rooted tax evasion, underbudgeting, creative accounting, weak notion of public service and duty, etc - all conspiring over decades to bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy.

I am sure many Greeks will have seen it coming and warned their governments in years past.To no avail as even the present government was elected as recently as late 2009 on a platform to increase spending.

According to EMU rules public finances were clearly to remain national responsibilities.A considerable chunk of sovereignty for States to manage through their democratically-elected governments of the day.
Would the Greeks have liked their Finance Ministry to be ruled or dictated to from Brussels or Frankfurt just so the Maastricht-agreed criteria could not have been so despondently ignored?

Current turmoil is the Euro's hardest test ever but one that will also represent a defining moment in the single-currency's future.

It is a fact that Southern European countries are faced with similar issues though not on the same scale and urgency.Others in Northern Europe, the US and Japan also recorded their biggest fiscal deficits and added up noticeably to their debts in 2009.
Each one has its own track-record, however.
This is exactly what sets Greece apart from the rest.
Each country is unique in its own way, there being obviously overlapping between them.

International rating agencies must make the effort to closely monitor and register those differences and then advise financial markets.

After all it is sovereign countries and sovereign debt one is dealing with.

There is much more at stake than strictly soulless bundling of nations.

Arquivo do blogue

quinta-feira, 14 de junho de 2012

TEc - Will Angela Merkel blink? - She will. Eventually.

I believe she will eventually blink when it becomes clear which way German interests run. And her own political fortunes at home.
Or which way they, Germany's and hers, will likely be harmed the least.
In this massive arm-wrestling that the Eurozone turned into, other major economies outside the Zone and indeed Europe are pitching in too to voice their concern at the stalemate.

AM has extended the rope pretty much to the limit. The only question now being whether she's prepared to let it snap or will she relax to patch it up to Germany's liking.
Countries most at fault will by then have learned their lesson. Whichever one that is.
Whatever comes to be will mark a turning point in the Eurozone and the larger EU.
Uncertainty remains the watchword.

TEc - Roiled - Oil demand and supply

There's more than a few conclusions to be inferred from the charts shown.
Both on the supply and demand side there were significant changes driven by a number of well-identifiable causes.
Overwhelming evidence shows that supply has kept up remarkably well with demand albeit not immediately. Furthermore, supply increases - despite severe localized disruptions - still outstripped demand increases.
The market therefore is not as hard-pressed as might have been pictured given vanished producers such as Libya.
Saudi Arabia came forward once again to fill the shortfall. It did so in its own timing, exerting an intended powerful influence on oil price escalation. Speculators did the rest.
The 'greening' of the developed world coupled with recessionary conditions in many countries across Europe has meant stagnant or declining oil consumption. Moderate falls are indeed to be welcomed if they should signal a move away from oil dependency.
Interestingly the US managed to raise daily output by nearly as much as its consumption fell.

terça-feira, 12 de junho de 2012

TEc - The hollow men - On Japanese industry moving out.

How troubled is Japan's sophisticated economy and ageing society really?
This article goes some way explaining but fails to point which way Japan might ultimately be headed for.
It is not unrealistic to accept that the country has entered a phase of relative decline by merit of main competitors rather than its own demise.
I take the view that there are new challenges facing Japan whose peak was reached many years ago. I also believe the nation could still surprise itself and many across the world for it is not done with by any means.
In fact, the trouncing it was subjected to by Mother Nature last year might in the longer run provide the country with renewed impetus and sense of collective purpose.
While other developed economies strugge to get by Japan's looks set to post substantial growth on the back of public investment (reconstruction) and private spending.
Exports will eventually bounce back strongly once the yen settles to fairer rates and industry chiefs weigh in all the options left to them.
It is a measure of how strong Japan remains - despite the most severe punishment of all dealt by Nature - that just over a year later nuclear stations have shutdown but will soon start up again, hopefully on improved safety envelopes.
In the world's third largest economy moving from 27-30% nuclear power generated electricity to other sources on such short timespan is a huge achievement in and of itself.
The trade balance swung into deficit, a new experience to the country in a longtime, but evidence points to a narrowing gap over the coming months.
Japan's leadership, both political and economic, however, must have realised that the country's present and future prosperity can only be sustained if it should retain most of the industrial base intact.
If the economic model hasn't changed significantly over the last 1-2 decades, despite every advance made by the new economy and claims to the contrary, home manufacturing is critical to any country aspiring to matter on a global scale.
Japan Inc. knows it, which probably explains the country's limited deindustrialisation so far.

Japan simply cannot afford to hollow itself out (of industry) after painstakingly building up its level of wealth and hard earned development over consecutive decades.
The paucity of natural resources and propensity to natural calamities - both beyond the scope of the archipelago's inhabitants - leave JAPAN no option but to produce and sell.
It is too soon to count the Japanese people out.

sexta-feira, 8 de junho de 2012

TEc - Rubbish map - The growing waste pile around the world

Staggering figures showing the scale of waste generated by the world we live in and contribute to.
Individual footprints are growing bigger, China's standing out for rapid increase and doubtful means to dealing with it.
The infograph displayed provides conclusive evidence to the amount of rubbish per capita being directly proportional to wealth of nations and consumption patterns.
If the US, as expected, outperforms most (per head and absolute) it is for me hard to explain Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, Guyana and Sri Lanka!
On current trends the main challenge, however, remains China for every reason I can think of.
I do not know how the country copes with today's rubbish pile, least of all government plans to face that of the future's...

sexta-feira, 1 de junho de 2012

TEc - The gateway to Africa? - South Africa's diminishing relative weight.

Certainly one of the gateways to Africa.
That is what South Africa has long been and has every potential to remaining as.
The good news is that many other African countries are finally settling down to levels of attractiveness unseen until recently.
Nigeria for one is forever the promised land of oil and honey. Overreliance on that single commodity has also brought with it the so-called curse.
Its large population should spell volume market opportunity.
Endemic corruption, poor overall governance, internal religious and political strife have, however, badly undercut its chances of fast balanced development over many years. 
Economic growth has been achieved lately in spite of all those negatives but falls far short of the country's true potential.
The same would apply to many other African countries to varying extent, including South Africa whose headstart is owed to it being more consolidated in multiple ways longer than most.
Indeed South Africa's main challenge from within is how high it sets the bar and aims for it.