The Euro, as a single currency, should be abolished
Another black and white motion statement leaving me no option but to choose No. While I agree to the first part I am not prepared to contemplate the idea that the Euro should get abolished. Abolished? Then what? All 17 countries now sharing the single currency would revert back to their old monies? Or a new version of yesteryear's currencies?
Simplistic as I made it out to be packed in a few odd questions, every single serious economic, financial and social consequence is inextricably wrapped up within each. That is where the stakes are high enough to ensure that the Euro is given a new lease on life. It calls for closer European integration. What form and shape this will take is for policymakers and far-sighted politicians to grasp and propose.
It would seem to me that the Euro has many underlying strengths but will not - contrary to the founder's beliefs - assure convergence between all the economies it services. How could it? The divide has been felt acutely lately (1-2 years) the logical consequence of relevant economic under-performance among member-countries.
There has obviously got to be a political solution rooted in realistic economic fundamentals. The road traveled so far proved artificially smooth during the first 10 years I dare say but unsurprisingly very bumpy in the last 1-2. It could not have been otherwise given the structural differences setting these countries apart. And excessive spending pursued mostly by a few Southern European States who could not see beyond the present. Adherence to the Maastricht criteria never again seemed to be taken seriously once countries landed themselves inside the Euro club. Not to mention Greece that never fulfilled the criteria in the first place or ever bothered to balance its books.
Very disappointing to admit but the Euro Zone is indeed right in the middle of a storm testing its main crews to the limit. The latest summit decisions seem to indicate that where there is a will there is a way. It may have just been one first small step in the right direction.
The specifics are very hard to work on. Yet it would seem to me that the 17-member Euro Zone and the larger EU can hardly afford shooting down the Euro. The broader picture needs to come into full view. An hypothetical demise of the single currency would deal another severe blow to Europe's economic fortunes. Its relative decline vis-a-vis the rest of the world would get a further boost.
I do not like misplaced calls for solidarity from Southerners but would rather see the stronger half of the dividing line realize where their medium-to-long interest lies. To that end many balances across the Euro Zone need to be restored at the earliest.
Europe agrees a "shock and awe" bailout for Greece
A rescue package of epic proportions, epic challenges for the Greek government and people, epic uncertainties and epic stakes for the single-currency.
It was the Euro's defence that ultimately forced politicians from Germany to Malta to perform a hard balancing act whose overall success is far from assured.Each finance minister has enough reasons to fret and grumble about.It being the Euro as a common currency, because of Greece despite Greece. Up to now every 'least damaging' approach failed miserably to cool down the financial markets that remained as unimpressed as ever throughout. For its part Greece is effectively the main winner in this high-finance gamble.The country bought time the markets were not willing to give it once confidence vanished.Precious time desperately needed to restore credibility and good governance at home. A daunting internal fix with daunting external implications. Three full years is what the government and Greek society top-down and bottom-up now have to set the record straight in so many ways. Literally and figuratively.
For the other 15 Eurozone countries - each facing own troubles to varying degrees - keeping fingers crossed would be mild to describe the monitoring of Greece's performance over the coming 36 months.Potentially they are all losers, starting out by losing simply to avoid bigger losses! There are so many relevant questions that might be asked to which full answers ought to be provided. They won't get asked or get answered. Tellingly, each and every single one of them would now seem rhetorical or at best an exercise for academia.
The spectre that haunts Europe
I am still hopeful that Greece will not require a bail-out in whatever form pinning my hopes on the PM's own words.
He did sound very bold and brave in the face of such overwhelming odds but until a deal is actually in place I would rather believe the Greeks can and will take care of themselves.
My stance is wholly based not on immediate needs triggered by the Western financial meltdown that led to the economic downturn.This in turn led to a collapse in tax revenues across countries caused by economies shrinking badly.
To a large extent Greece is indeed a one-off case-study for the worst reasons, its latest fiscal deficit the sum total of profligate spending, widespread cultural-rooted tax evasion, underbudgeting, creative accounting, weak notion of public service and duty, etc - all conspiring over decades to bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy.
I am sure many Greeks will have seen it coming and warned their governments in years past.To no avail as even the present government was elected as recently as late 2009 on a platform to increase spending.
According to EMU rules public finances were clearly to remain national responsibilities.A considerable chunk of sovereignty for States to manage through their democratically-elected governments of the day.
Would the Greeks have liked their Finance Ministry to be ruled or dictated to from Brussels or Frankfurt just so the Maastricht-agreed criteria could not have been so despondently ignored?
Current turmoil is the Euro's hardest test ever but one that will also represent a defining moment in the single-currency's future.
It is a fact that Southern European countries are faced with similar issues though not on the same scale and urgency.Others in Northern Europe, the US and Japan also recorded their biggest fiscal deficits and added up noticeably to their debts in 2009. Each one has its own track-record, however. This is exactly what sets Greece apart from the rest. Each country is unique in its own way, there being obviously overlapping between them.
International rating agencies must make the effort to closely monitor and register those differences and then advise financial markets.
After all it is sovereign countries and sovereign debt one is dealing with.
There is much more at stake than strictly soulless bundling of nations.
I am utterly and wholly unable to answer this question. As it turns out the Euro's survival no longer depends on politicians' ability to convince financial markets that they are prepared to mount its defense at any cost. In 2012 the markets will continue to push yields up - they will have plenty of opportunity to do so picking one country at a time - taking the EMU to the brink. Which domino will eventually withstand upright drawing a neat line beyond survivability mode?
For the rest of us mere passive onlookers there remains only uncertainty on top of uncertainty.
Well done! Simple and easy for any layman to understand what is going on regarding China's largely perceived rise to economic prominence. Readers are afforded fiddling to their liking with two variables that sum up economic performance thus obtaining different overtaking year-dates.
One assumption, however, goes unmentioned but is internally concocted(!?) as a certainty: China will sooner rather than later become the world's biggest economy ending the long presidency of the United States of America. It has lasted well over a century until China woke up from a long slumber to make the ongoing impressive dash to the top. While common folk don't quite understand yet what the implications are/will be - they can't be blamed for that anyway - I often wonder if American leadership generally does. And if so, what action will it undertake to at least hold US ground. Not by seeking to arrest China's inexorable growth but aiming to achieve and keep a decent second. Or keep the number one spot for as long as decent growth in a mature market/economy may assure?
Far too many questions remain unanswered in the tectonic shifts brought about by gobalisation as has taken hold. Maybe they will not get asked until it becomes self-evident what follows from economic decadence.
Sadly I have voted No knowing that chances are high a technical recession is in the offing, if only briefly. It has been an unfolding never-ending saga in the Eurozone where prospects remain uncertain at the very least. Britain's economic performance largely hinges on how the Euro crisis and its fallout play out over the course of 2012.
Unlike Germany's broad based industrial sector ever ready to deliver the goods to willing buyers, Britain's strengths and outreach are considerably more limited. Financial services regardless of their size can hardly make a bigger contribution than they already made over the boom years.
The underlying question is how to get excessively debt-ridden countries - Britain included - on the path to sound economic growth. I would hope to see some solid answers come in over 2012.
A very significant milestone no doubt. It may be regarded as a welcome development that suggests a better balanced world broadly understood to mean more evenly spread purchasing power across countries.
Nevertheless, it is worrisome to realise this is a combination of a positive and a negative. The positive is of course growing disposable personal incomes in emerging economies. The negative is the seemingly excessive contraction taking place in many developed economies. While the former should be seen as a natural development in absolute and relative terms, the latter if unchecked is very disturbing indeed. Slow or near stagnant growth is often a logical consequence of mature markets in developed nations.
More balanced global trade flows are only a reflection of current and a decade-long of economic performance worldwide. Itself a consequence of re-location, globalisation, absolute free trade, free western-market access and free capital flows. They disguise the fact that individual countries are facing severe overall downturns and poor prospects. Feeling the pinch much harder than others with little or no room for manoeuvre.
I'm beginning to wonder whether there's any use left for Summits that don't deliver on fundamentals. Or whether there is anything at all politicians can do to right wrongs especially when up against those-by-now infamous financial markets and rating agencies.
Setting aside rhetorical questions that keep nagging nevertheless, the latest Summit fell far short of expectations raised to make or break status. What next? Pace of events will continue to be determined by the bond-market/s. Politicians have been cast to the sidelines merely reacting after the fact. Germany's Angela Merkel is again a winner in that her long adopted step-by-step approach remains firmly in place.
We move into 2012 not knowing if the Euro can endure much longer under current assumptions and self-imposed strictures by the relevant institutions underpinning it.
If only I could spot a ray of hope besides believing (wishfully?) most leaders are fully aware of where the stakes are should the Euro fail. Every nation in the EU - and further afield - will be a loser the difference being the size and permanence of the loss. But also if hard-pressed financially-strapped countries fail to resume sound economic growth.
The two charts confirm a faster pace of income growth taking place in the two demographic superpowers of the world. The real name of the game is: catching-up. Which is exactly what China and India aimed for and are achieving to different levels of success. Narrowing the wide wealth gap between rich and poor nations is about economic growth rates being bearish in mature markets while remaining bullish in less developed ones over many decades.
If current trends stick a new world order is dawning. What has been seen so far is only a foretaste.
Britain's case is every bit as important as the Eurozone's for reasons stretching well beyond current woes affecting the latter.
The United Kingdom is one of the long-established nations of the industrialised world. It chose to retain its own currency as well as every other tool to manage the economy sovereignly. Evidence shows, however, that it is hardly in any better shape than most other highly indebted countries of the developed world, large or small.
Unless that single one-word question is correctly addressed there can be no proper resolution to the daunting challenges facing the UK economy. It must also be said that this is despite financial markets still eyeing the UK with extreme favour. How else can Britain's low borrowing costs be seen when set against its macro figures and real growth prospects?
Each country is one of a kind presenting clearly an individual track-record, present strengths and weaknesses and future prospects. Close analysis quickly offers multiple data to back up relevant differences.
It would seem that the Chancellor of the Exchequer did not have an option other than to cut back on runaway spending. Where he failed was that overconfidence that his policies would spur growth quicker.
But how can that come about when recent past growth was owed mainly to overblown banking and financial services, excessive public and private spending adding up to those towering debts?
Like the so-called periphery the UK also embarked on a limitless spending spree. In fact the country's fiscal deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio combined or independently, is worse than most in Southern Europe, Greece the odd exception. Furthermore, total debt - public + corporate + household - is by far among the highest, Ireland the odd exception here.
Then there is the powerful argument of growth potential, a meaningful one doubless. Used by market analysts to severely punish Southern countries but what truly will drive British growth in the future?
Having already been revised downwards through 2014 one wonders why financial markets remain so benevolent towards the UK while battering others including Germany lately.
There must be a one and only explanation: the Bank of England. As long as the institution remains rock-solid in place as the government's lender of last resort markets and investors may stay calm almost irrespective of the debt pile's height?
George Osborne's efforts are therefore right in the sense that throwing debt on top of debt is unsustainable by definition. It has got to stop at some point in time. In the UK's case that point was reached years ago. So too in most countries who overspent as nearly the only means to cause the economy to grow.
A very difficult balancing act now faces governments in the US and many in Western Europe. In the immediate reining in public finances to rational and sustainable levels is paramount. The underlying issue much broader. It is about industrial production and other wealth drivers that may sustain rich economies over time.
In this regard the UK is relatively ill-equipped unless more than a few embedded trendlines are quickly reversed.
A brief overview of Britain's relative manufacturing demise spanning three decades also accompanied by sheer financial inebriation. As the country's industrial heartlands were being ravaged by successive factory closures, the City in London bragged about its financial prowess. As if it could on its own lastingly represent a substitute for production of tangible goods.
I never could understand how a nation of solid manufacturing credentials dating back to the 18th century seemed wilfully contented - at the highest levels except for a few disgruntled voices - with its new-found role as one of the world's financial hubs. Not the sophistication and volume of financial services - Britain was always known for them - but its increasingly unchallenged dominance as if the rest of the economy could simply be sidelined irreversibly condemned to decline. After all if China and other low cost producers would happily become manufacturing powerhouses why not surrender without a fight to overwhelming evidence of economic sense(?). Most of those who made decisions over the years will have thought no further than immediate profit, cost and scale while politicians patted on their backs unaware of far-reaching looming consequences.
The UK's economy's weakness is now fully exposed. Facing an appalling trade deficit and insufficient yearly revenue from the mighty Services the country's current account balance threatens to remain permanently in the red. That means seeking external finance to fill the gap adding to the already massive public and private debt pile.
How short-sighted it was not to have sought the commitment from Britain's top businesses to continue to mass-produce at home first and foremost. If the economic model has not not fundamentally changed from the 80's - consumption of durables is still key - will it ever be less than relevant where goods are actually made?
Giant or no giant companies the UK needs to reinvent itself tracing back to its industrial roots what truly put Great before Britain. Rebalancing the UK economy is the only way to address structural imbalances reflected in the macro facts and figures that have now become ingrained in the British set-up.
It takes time, investment, policy and a vision for the country in the years ahead.
The charts do back the text and deliver a quick snapshot of the two groups should countries be so lumped into each group. It is questionable if this should be done as individual assessments clearly provide widely disparate initial and final standpoints.
Nonetheless, assuming there is financial, economic, cultural and climatic parenthood between countries as grouped then their performance is only a reflection of what was known all along. Right from the Euro's inception to this day. Only made worse. Still, can an eminently industrial economy as Italy's - a longtime member of the G7 - be bagged with Greece?
That said, there is and there has always been a North-South divide of sorts in Europe. There is one worldwide too as indeed within most countries even. The creation of the single currency was about achieving gradual economic convergence among diverse participating nations. Over a long timespan certainly.
On balance it may now be said that the opposite came true. The most disturbing chart of all is on industrial production - wealth-driver, showing a 15% drop in the South compared to a near 10% rise in the North over 10 years.
If the Euro is to succeed and survive through another decade countries north and south of the divide have to strive harder for sound economic growth.
The theater may be South-East Asia, the body of water the South China Sea. The hard evidence however is that America is increasingly turning its attention to the Asia-Pacific region. Rightly so. The reasons are plain for everyone to grasp ranging from economic interdependence between the US and China to the net worth of each of the countries brimming with self-confidence and robust economic growth. On the downside, self-inflicted relative irrelevance is increasingly growing out from Europe now compounded and fully absorbed by the Euro crisis. Complex as it is, Eurozone troubles underpin a general malaise felt across Europe only just sparing a few nations. These have buckled multiple trends witnessed in most countries and could indicate that Europe is not irreversibly past its prime.
But for now positive action is taking place in South Asia, South-East Asia and Asia-Pacific, Central and South America, Africa and the Middle-East. America's leadership has long sensed that.
It is highly significant that the US should try to reassure traditional friends in the Asia-Pacific region ahead of a fast emerging China. China for its part - judging by some of its most outspoken mouthpieces - may sound bullish beyond what might reasonably be expected of a rising major country. A country that has long yearned to re-take its rightful place in the world.
In this game of power and influence both the US and China will only do so much. Most individual countries in the region continue to boom and will, for the better part, seek to accommodate both giants furthering their own national interest first and foremost.
Dance they may - China and the US - but the tunes will have to cater for local listening tastes - from Taiwan to Australia - too.
It is hard to stomach an article as realistic as this one concerning Europe's current fortunes and projecting them into the foreseeable future. Eurozone sovereign-debt triggered woes likely being only a symptom of a larger set of problems besetting the Old Continent. The broader picture unfolded shows far too many dark spots whose correction is not forthcoming. Unless many can begin to agree on structural causes, consequences and possible reversals.
There is no easy way to fix such complex issues reaching far and wide. If, however, they should get summed up in two words they would be: industrial production. Individual European countries have fared markedly differently showing strengths (and weaknesses) to widely varying degrees too. The strongest ones are those that after the first decade of globalization still retain their production base largely intact. Yet as stand-alones no single European country, not even the biggest economy of them all - Germany, will make much of an impact in a fast changing world pecking order. This is why the EU project far from being obsolete or getting demonised should receive renewed impetus from all who can see beyond today and the following day.
I would therefore like to interpret the ongoing Euro crisis as a loud and clear wake-up call. While the need of the hour is to find a working settlement that will assure the survival of the Euro, the medium to longer run desperately yearns for oversized political action rooted in sound judgment and foresight.
If centrist is supposed to mean a politician who holds moderate views on all public issues then yes Barack Obama is very much a centrist. His leadership has so far shown remarkable endurance in the face of great odds some of which are deeply embedded in the system. In fact, it is hard to carry forward moderate, no non-sense, balanced policy in a world whose many powers are often shadowy in their workings. Most often than not they run contrary to the public interest. Some of those who pursue such conflicting interests to the extreme objectively see themselves over and above the law, public scrutiny, regulation or any form of democratic control. This has become self-evident on multiple occasions over recent years.
BO has permitted a whiff of fresh air to flow in but he has also laid bare the limitations of US government at a time when the country remains fundamentally economically weakened.
His sharp intellect, broad-mindedness and balance remain one of the best assets to be found in America's political class.
I had to dither briefly before casting a No vote. That is bad enough!
I must add that I never ever understood how Greece was let into the Euro in the first place. Academic now? Maybe, but that also underscores every other view held today as to why Greece should get one last chance. First and foremost for its own sake, brushing aside fears that if it did leave the Euro and the EU might quickly begin to unravel too.
A country of over 11m at Europe's southeastern corner should take the blame for past mistakes committed since 1981. No more. The sovereign-debt crisis afflicting many others in Europe and the USA is not of their making. It would not go away the following day.
I do not think quitting the Euro is a realistic option any more than Greece escaping from the long direly called-for multiple internal adjustments. This is the real test for Greek leadership - both political and wider civil society - to reset the country on a new measured footing.
Excessive borrowing could never be healthy. Or could it ever be carried on indefinitely.
The real drama here is that the Euro has been so fundamentally undermined by foolish excesses disguised as economic growth. Outside the Euro Greece would not be better off. Such a move would only speed up the country's economic and social decline.
Nearly troubling to varying degrees would be the fate of remaining Euro members...
Just when it seemed the Eurozone had taken the boldest step so far ahead of the G20 French Summit Greece succeeded shining the spotlight upon itself. It did so through the announcement of its ruling PM who, it is now becoming increasingly apparent, was mainly playing internal politics with far reaching external audience and consequence. Finding himself in a tight corner as he has long been Papandreou figured out he had to act dramatically. So he did. High gamble it is but what options are there in a country that's in a damn if you do, damn if you don't conundrum?
Will GP's government survive through today? If it does what next? If it doesn't what next?
Yet again the latest deal has shown that Mrs. Merkel's step-by-step approach won the day.
There does appear to be real boldness however, when all three major decisions are assessed independently and taken together. Not least formal acknowledgment of Greece's inability to pay its debts and the generous haircut agreed upon. Technicalities are complex enough, consequences far-reaching that political will was on display to a considerable degree.
It is fair to say that while a final resolution to the Eurozone crisis is still a long way off, substantial extra track has now been covered to that end. Unlike previous ones this has been the bigger step forward so far.
Super Mario? The one who felled or who rescued the Euro? Is it a matter of personality (that does count but not fully) or are we all looking for something radically different as a last hope?
Questions aside the ECB is the cornerstone of the Euro edifice. Its top leadership and direction does therefore matter especially in troubled times such as the current one.
Perhaps understandably very few people are truly aware of the gargantuan tasks needed to redress the Euro. If it is a bridge too far then the world will shortly know from the meetings due.
I find a single lonely word to best describe the current state of affairs: uncertainty.
A freshman at the helm of the ECB should provide a renewed breeze. Delivery on the sovereign-debt crisis now engulfing a fair number of European countries takes a much wider circle. In tune on critical issues.