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Lisboa, Portugal
Nasci no dia 11 de Junho de 1964 na cidade da Beira, MOÇAMBIQUE.

A Estação dos CFM, Beira

A Estação dos CFM, Beira
Ex-libris da cidade, 1966

The Euro, as a single currency, should be abolished

Another black and white motion statement leaving me no option but to choose No.
While I agree to the first part I am not prepared to contemplate the idea that the Euro should get abolished.
Abolished? Then what?
All 17 countries now sharing the single currency would revert back to their old monies?
Or a new version of yesteryear's currencies?

Simplistic as I made it out to be packed in a few odd questions, every single serious economic, financial and social consequence is inextricably wrapped up within each.
That is where the stakes are high enough to ensure that the Euro is given a new lease on life.
It calls for closer European integration.
What form and shape this will take is for policymakers and far-sighted politicians to grasp and propose.

It would seem to me that the Euro has many underlying strengths but will not - contrary to the founder's beliefs - assure convergence between all the economies it services. How could it?
The divide has been felt acutely lately (1-2 years) the logical consequence of relevant economic under-performance among member-countries.

There has obviously got to be a political solution rooted in realistic economic fundamentals.
The road traveled so far proved artificially smooth during the first 10 years I dare say but unsurprisingly very bumpy in the last 1-2.
It could not have been otherwise given the structural differences setting these countries apart. And excessive spending pursued mostly by a few Southern European States who could not see beyond the present.
Adherence to the Maastricht criteria never again seemed to be taken seriously once countries landed themselves inside the Euro club. Not to mention Greece that never fulfilled the criteria in the first place or ever bothered to balance its books.

Very disappointing to admit but the Euro Zone is indeed right in the middle of a storm testing its main crews to the limit.
The latest summit decisions seem to indicate that where there is a will there is a way.
It may have just been one first small step in the right direction.

The specifics are very hard to work on.
Yet it would seem to me that the 17-member Euro Zone and the larger EU can hardly afford shooting down the Euro.
The broader picture needs to come into full view.
An hypothetical demise of the single currency would deal another severe blow to Europe's economic fortunes.
Its relative decline vis-a-vis the rest of the world would get a further boost.

I do not like misplaced calls for solidarity from Southerners but would rather see the stronger half of the dividing line realize where their medium-to-long interest lies.
To that end many balances across the Euro Zone need to be restored at the earliest.

Europe agrees a "shock and awe" bailout for Greece

A rescue package of epic proportions, epic challenges for the Greek government and people, epic uncertainties and epic stakes for the single-currency.

It was the Euro's defence that ultimately forced politicians from Germany to Malta to perform a hard balancing act whose overall success is far from assured.Each finance minister has enough reasons to fret and grumble about.It being the Euro as a common currency, because of Greece despite Greece.
Up to now every 'least damaging' approach failed miserably to cool down the financial markets that remained as unimpressed as ever throughout.
For its part Greece is effectively the main winner in this high-finance gamble.The country bought time the markets were not willing to give it once confidence vanished.Precious time desperately needed to restore credibility and good governance at home.
A daunting internal fix with daunting external implications.
Three full years is what the government and Greek society top-down and bottom-up now have to set the record straight in so many ways.
Literally and figuratively.

For the other 15 Eurozone countries - each facing own troubles to varying degrees - keeping fingers crossed would be mild to describe the monitoring of Greece's performance over the coming 36 months.Potentially they are all losers, starting out by losing simply to avoid bigger losses!
There are so many relevant questions that might be asked to which full answers ought to be provided.
They won't get asked or get answered.
Tellingly, each and every single one of them would now seem rhetorical or at best an exercise for academia.

The spectre that haunts Europe

I am still hopeful that Greece will not require a bail-out in whatever form pinning my hopes on the PM's own words.

He did sound very bold and brave in the face of such overwhelming odds but until a deal is actually in place I would rather believe the Greeks can and will take care of themselves.

My stance is wholly based not on immediate needs triggered by the Western financial meltdown that led to the economic downturn.This in turn led to a collapse in tax revenues across countries caused by economies shrinking badly.

To a large extent Greece is indeed a one-off case-study for the worst reasons, its latest fiscal deficit the sum total of profligate spending, widespread cultural-rooted tax evasion, underbudgeting, creative accounting, weak notion of public service and duty, etc - all conspiring over decades to bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy.

I am sure many Greeks will have seen it coming and warned their governments in years past.To no avail as even the present government was elected as recently as late 2009 on a platform to increase spending.

According to EMU rules public finances were clearly to remain national responsibilities.A considerable chunk of sovereignty for States to manage through their democratically-elected governments of the day.
Would the Greeks have liked their Finance Ministry to be ruled or dictated to from Brussels or Frankfurt just so the Maastricht-agreed criteria could not have been so despondently ignored?

Current turmoil is the Euro's hardest test ever but one that will also represent a defining moment in the single-currency's future.

It is a fact that Southern European countries are faced with similar issues though not on the same scale and urgency.Others in Northern Europe, the US and Japan also recorded their biggest fiscal deficits and added up noticeably to their debts in 2009.
Each one has its own track-record, however.
This is exactly what sets Greece apart from the rest.
Each country is unique in its own way, there being obviously overlapping between them.

International rating agencies must make the effort to closely monitor and register those differences and then advise financial markets.

After all it is sovereign countries and sovereign debt one is dealing with.

There is much more at stake than strictly soulless bundling of nations.

Arquivo do blogue

terça-feira, 24 de julho de 2012

TEc - Disunited states of Europe - EU woes

The title to Charlemagne's latest piece is fitting enough.
Tellingly it wraps up the actual root cause of most macro problems now facing the EU.
I was never in any doubt that EU integration would be a slow, painful often heated-and-prone-to-setback process spread out over decades.
How could nations that lived at loggerheads with each other, in fierce competition and animosity over centuries ever hope to stand as one after a handful of years?
That said I cannot help being awed at the level of disunity that has surfaced thanks largely to a flawed economic model. A model based on seeking permanent help from money lenders to plug mounting deficits as if there was no tomorrow.
Rolling debt is acceptable until the debt pile is so huge as to become unmanageable. Yet this is exactly what happened to Southern European countries (Spain excepted), Ireland and outlier UK.
Uncertainty remains the only meaningful word.
The Eurozone's complexity is far from being approached aiming for resolution through balanced compromise.

While I instinctively agree with the points you've raised I am yet to see that silver lining come into full view.
There never was such good timing for a serious review of sorts and ways within societies. Much, however, hinges on prevailing dynamics in each of them. The way government and various leaderships across the full spectrum play out their stakes also featuring decisively.
I would hope to see balanced change driven by a greater goal come about.
As critical as it is for main bodies from civil society to rise up to the times, governments too must lead the way. Not by playing Daddy but by preventing or managing conflict wisely always for the greater good of the greatest number.
Failure to do so will mean a relapse to the very causes of the current mess. Such a mess would then perpetuate itself.
Each man for himself would signal a civilizational leap backwards most of us would not wish for.

terça-feira, 17 de julho de 2012

TEc - On the home front - Angela, the German Chancellor

Internal politics was always bound to catch up with the German chancellor. In fact, it has never been a sideshow at those EU summits. After all she was voted into office to uphold the interests of Germans first.
This is exactly the point at which the European Union project looms large in the picture.
Do common folk in Germany understand just how much they have profited individually and collectively from a pan-European community of nations since its inception in the early fifties?
Do their political representatives care to tell them enough, standing up for factual evidence and in keeping with great German leaders even in the recent past?
It is of course a complex situation that the Eurozone has arrived at but one that demands Statesmanship, whatever that is meant to be nowadays! When financial markets clearly gained the upper hand.
The coming months will put AM's leadership of her country and her vision of the EU's relevance to Germany to the test again and again.
There is plenty of homework for indebted countries to accomplish whether they belonged in a currency union or not. Germany, however, also needs to change its handling of EU matters.
If not, the Union - whose visionary founding fathers and European believers - will stay adrift to eventually founder altogether. Or metamorphose into an irrelevant entity loosely binding utterly different nations unable to work as a bloc.
Nations that never truly overcame popular perceptions of each other..., some of their current leaders actually sharpening those perceptions beyond any rational argument.
It is good Chancellor AM remains strong at home.
She should now start mustering that credibility in the best interests of the German nation bound in Europe well into the future.
Will she?

terça-feira, 3 de julho de 2012

TEc - Diamond's not forever - On Bob diamond

I'm glad that the authoritative 'The Economist' has had J.O. write a brief yet highly relevant piece.
Will not get interpretative of the man's actions or omissions but there are facts that speak louder than a million words said under whatever pretence.
Such appears to be the case just as we were losing faith in regulators and watchdogs to simply do their job dutifully for the greater good of the greatest number. For fairness, for balance.
In the wake of the financial and banking crisis started in the US in 2007, whose after-effects are being felt by millions, the least that can be expected of top management at banks and financial groups is for them to welcome becoming more accountable.
And check their pay and perks as well for wholesome disproportionate greed, in the main geared to self-agrandizement.
If wrongdoing is confirmed the public expect the gentleman and whoever else connived with him to feel the full brunt of whichever institution is in place to stop bad practices.
Especially in as sensitive a sector whose top leadership must endeavour to regain the trust of the general public.