terça-feira, 19 de setembro de 2017
FT - Portugal's comeback is the Eurozone's Socialist success story - there's more to it than news hype
As far as I'm concerned it is good news plain and simple - no more than that: just Good News! Assessments are utterly predictable - even the choice of words - you read one, you've read them all.
That said, due merit falls to both current and former governments but especially to a people who bore the brunt of a deliberately-driven financially troubled country that clearly overreached itself.
The financial system, however, will always want (and need) credit-hungry economies to borrow wildly. The wilder the better. Give them enough rope and let them (only just) hang themselves... Let them have a ball while the going is good. Then, suddenly, pull the plug and stop the music.
The leadership will grumble but the vast majority picks up any tab regardless. (one ex: VAT on electricity bills shot up from 13 to 23%, millions pay millions more each month - looks like a one-off but the rate is unlikely to ever come down).
Financial markets thrive in the so-called leverage/deleverage cycles.
Creditors-in-waiting fill the void when serious imbalances loom and markets shut down.
IMF heads cannot disguise their contentment.They become important overnight.
Another one bites the dust.
If the local leadership did not learn a thing (Centeno - the Finance Minister, has meanwhile momentarily(?) displayed remarkable caution...hats off) the next Schauble in Berlin will smile wryly again down the line. His country's sovereign debt is large enough but well under control and manageable.
By then, Centeno, like his predecessors, will be taking care of himself and kin.
Portugal gets by.
This time the noose was fairly tight but not tight enough.
That said, due merit falls to both current and former governments but especially to a people who bore the brunt of a deliberately-driven financially troubled country that clearly overreached itself.
The financial system, however, will always want (and need) credit-hungry economies to borrow wildly. The wilder the better. Give them enough rope and let them (only just) hang themselves... Let them have a ball while the going is good. Then, suddenly, pull the plug and stop the music.
The leadership will grumble but the vast majority picks up any tab regardless. (one ex: VAT on electricity bills shot up from 13 to 23%, millions pay millions more each month - looks like a one-off but the rate is unlikely to ever come down).
Financial markets thrive in the so-called leverage/deleverage cycles.
Creditors-in-waiting fill the void when serious imbalances loom and markets shut down.
IMF heads cannot disguise their contentment.They become important overnight.
Another one bites the dust.
If the local leadership did not learn a thing (Centeno - the Finance Minister, has meanwhile momentarily(?) displayed remarkable caution...hats off) the next Schauble in Berlin will smile wryly again down the line. His country's sovereign debt is large enough but well under control and manageable.
By then, Centeno, like his predecessors, will be taking care of himself and kin.
Portugal gets by.
This time the noose was fairly tight but not tight enough.
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