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Lisboa, Portugal
Nasci no dia 11 de Junho de 1964 na cidade da Beira, MOÇAMBIQUE.

A Estação dos CFM, Beira

A Estação dos CFM, Beira
Ex-libris da cidade, 1966

The Euro, as a single currency, should be abolished

Another black and white motion statement leaving me no option but to choose No.
While I agree to the first part I am not prepared to contemplate the idea that the Euro should get abolished.
Abolished? Then what?
All 17 countries now sharing the single currency would revert back to their old monies?
Or a new version of yesteryear's currencies?

Simplistic as I made it out to be packed in a few odd questions, every single serious economic, financial and social consequence is inextricably wrapped up within each.
That is where the stakes are high enough to ensure that the Euro is given a new lease on life.
It calls for closer European integration.
What form and shape this will take is for policymakers and far-sighted politicians to grasp and propose.

It would seem to me that the Euro has many underlying strengths but will not - contrary to the founder's beliefs - assure convergence between all the economies it services. How could it?
The divide has been felt acutely lately (1-2 years) the logical consequence of relevant economic under-performance among member-countries.

There has obviously got to be a political solution rooted in realistic economic fundamentals.
The road traveled so far proved artificially smooth during the first 10 years I dare say but unsurprisingly very bumpy in the last 1-2.
It could not have been otherwise given the structural differences setting these countries apart. And excessive spending pursued mostly by a few Southern European States who could not see beyond the present.
Adherence to the Maastricht criteria never again seemed to be taken seriously once countries landed themselves inside the Euro club. Not to mention Greece that never fulfilled the criteria in the first place or ever bothered to balance its books.

Very disappointing to admit but the Euro Zone is indeed right in the middle of a storm testing its main crews to the limit.
The latest summit decisions seem to indicate that where there is a will there is a way.
It may have just been one first small step in the right direction.

The specifics are very hard to work on.
Yet it would seem to me that the 17-member Euro Zone and the larger EU can hardly afford shooting down the Euro.
The broader picture needs to come into full view.
An hypothetical demise of the single currency would deal another severe blow to Europe's economic fortunes.
Its relative decline vis-a-vis the rest of the world would get a further boost.

I do not like misplaced calls for solidarity from Southerners but would rather see the stronger half of the dividing line realize where their medium-to-long interest lies.
To that end many balances across the Euro Zone need to be restored at the earliest.

Europe agrees a "shock and awe" bailout for Greece

A rescue package of epic proportions, epic challenges for the Greek government and people, epic uncertainties and epic stakes for the single-currency.

It was the Euro's defence that ultimately forced politicians from Germany to Malta to perform a hard balancing act whose overall success is far from assured.Each finance minister has enough reasons to fret and grumble about.It being the Euro as a common currency, because of Greece despite Greece.
Up to now every 'least damaging' approach failed miserably to cool down the financial markets that remained as unimpressed as ever throughout.
For its part Greece is effectively the main winner in this high-finance gamble.The country bought time the markets were not willing to give it once confidence vanished.Precious time desperately needed to restore credibility and good governance at home.
A daunting internal fix with daunting external implications.
Three full years is what the government and Greek society top-down and bottom-up now have to set the record straight in so many ways.
Literally and figuratively.

For the other 15 Eurozone countries - each facing own troubles to varying degrees - keeping fingers crossed would be mild to describe the monitoring of Greece's performance over the coming 36 months.Potentially they are all losers, starting out by losing simply to avoid bigger losses!
There are so many relevant questions that might be asked to which full answers ought to be provided.
They won't get asked or get answered.
Tellingly, each and every single one of them would now seem rhetorical or at best an exercise for academia.



The spectre that haunts Europe

I am still hopeful that Greece will not require a bail-out in whatever form pinning my hopes on the PM's own words.

He did sound very bold and brave in the face of such overwhelming odds but until a deal is actually in place I would rather believe the Greeks can and will take care of themselves.

My stance is wholly based not on immediate needs triggered by the Western financial meltdown that led to the economic downturn.This in turn led to a collapse in tax revenues across countries caused by economies shrinking badly.

To a large extent Greece is indeed a one-off case-study for the worst reasons, its latest fiscal deficit the sum total of profligate spending, widespread cultural-rooted tax evasion, underbudgeting, creative accounting, weak notion of public service and duty, etc - all conspiring over decades to bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy.

I am sure many Greeks will have seen it coming and warned their governments in years past.To no avail as even the present government was elected as recently as late 2009 on a platform to increase spending.

According to EMU rules public finances were clearly to remain national responsibilities.A considerable chunk of sovereignty for States to manage through their democratically-elected governments of the day.
Would the Greeks have liked their Finance Ministry to be ruled or dictated to from Brussels or Frankfurt just so the Maastricht-agreed criteria could not have been so despondently ignored?


Current turmoil is the Euro's hardest test ever but one that will also represent a defining moment in the single-currency's future.

It is a fact that Southern European countries are faced with similar issues though not on the same scale and urgency.Others in Northern Europe, the US and Japan also recorded their biggest fiscal deficits and added up noticeably to their debts in 2009.
Each one has its own track-record, however.
This is exactly what sets Greece apart from the rest.
Each country is unique in its own way, there being obviously overlapping between them.

International rating agencies must make the effort to closely monitor and register those differences and then advise financial markets.

After all it is sovereign countries and sovereign debt one is dealing with.

There is much more at stake than strictly soulless bundling of nations.







Arquivo do blogue

quinta-feira, 14 de outubro de 2010

TEC debate motion "Religion is a force for good" Perhaps matters of the spirit can never be straightforward.

Theoretically speaking there should hardly be doubt that religion is a force for good.

Unfortunately I'm afraid it has, to a large degree, not been the case over the ages.


No matter what the religion - perhaps with the odd exception - more than a few atrocious atrocities have been committed since the dawn of time by warring factions in the name of one's chosen God.
What a striking and sickening contradiction it is that humanity should have arrived in the 21st. century with religion still being so deliriously divisive when not an outright violence-driving powerful tool!
Factional fighting is an ongoing daily feature in many parts of the world where religion is a readily used argument to whip up feelings of distrust and hatred.Usually to suit immediate political, economic, social or other less visible yet obscure gains of a few promoters.
In such a context it is hard to file the motion statement under a yes or no.
No amount of pious sentiment - genuine or not - can blind us from the perils caused by misplaced and overblown religious beliefs.
Christianity which seems to have arguably evolved the most from its own period of darkness is still beset by internal issues not addressed to full consequence.


Despite religions sitting on akin core values of goodness, forgiveness and evenness the fact remains that over the centuries on balance it is not at all clear whether or not they have served man's earthly causes best.
Maybe there will come a point in time when we can positively be agreed on a statement as authoritative as this one.


Until such time I am compelled to pass on the voting but not on the debate.

TEc - "United they stand" Ghosts and sequels from the past remain but ahead is as one.

Very interesting brief overview of Germany's internal divide that is likely to endure longer than optimists might have hoped for.

Back in 1991 I made it a point to travel through 'East Germany' after visiting the Western part of the recently reunited country.
I could quickly tell a long time and massive investment would need to follow before Germany became homogenous in infrastructure, the economy and general standards.
20 years is not long enough to overcome the issues and challenges of old and new presented by unification.


Germany is the best example of the pains and difficulties of balancing sister regions with woefully uneven levels of wealth.
Despite there being no cultural or language divide two strikingly opposing economic systems produced 'two' nearly distinct countries within one.


On an upbeat note The Economist failed to capture in writing one crucial fact from the infograph shown:
GDP per capita in the 5 eastern Landers has doubled from 1991 while in western Landers increases have been, as might be expected, much lower.
On that meaningful economic indicator former East Germany is fast catching up.
Those massive financial transfers are making a difference but the challenge to eventually achieve balance remains.
Understandably.

BBC Blog Network "Chile miners rescue" My reaction as the operation works its way through...

Not at all in Chile, quite far away from it actually - Lisboa, Portugal is my end.
Coordinates cleared, it has been one of those events live TV makes it feel like I'm nearly there in the middle of the action.
Following the rescue operation as much as possible from the first two winched up to hopefully the very last one when his turn comes.
From day one post-accident management appears to have been carried out seamlessly in every way - now crowned by a so-far highly successful and technically flawless rescue operation.
Expectations management was especially superb since the very early days following news that the miners were alive and safe.

Only trapped 650m down.


When it is all over Safety related issues must be closely investigated. Improvements across every mine in the country should be pursued from a higher level of knowledge and adopted safety standards.
A country that owes so much of its wealth to the bowels of the earth must ensure the men who bring it to surface are well-looked after.
Despite inherent risks some of which cannot be eliminated altogether.


Lastly, these 33 men have shown a team spirit, resilience, discipline, commitment and faith that calls for no further words.
Positive collective human behaviour contributes powerfully to positive outcomes in the face of the greatest odds.

BBC Blog Network "How should tax money be spent?" Wisely but not miserly, thoughtfully but not wastefully.

There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that a chunk of taxpayers' money is grossly misspent.What the size of that chunk is would pretty much be anybody's guess depending on country and the proven quality of its leadership.A fair number of other background factors such as culture/strength of civil society and its bodies and past practices also play a defining role.


Spending it better will come about forcefully out of governments left optionless or naturally when a country's leadership finally ratches up to a higher standard of public duty and service.
Lately what is being witnessed has regrettably more to do with the former than the latter.


The role of government in free-market economies is to ensure the transparency of markets and a level playing field for private business to operate in.
Under no circumstances should governments back away from useful intervention if - and only if - it should contribute to improve and safeguard the interests of the vast majority.
To my mind this is fully compatible as much as it is direly needed long before the appalling practices in the run up to the financial meltdown became known.
Reaching a fine balance is a permanent challenge for responsible government. A quest for the win-win formula that weds private and public interests.


The last question is not an easy one to answer until such time as sound politics takes centre stage again.
Skeptical and suspicious of politicians as people are does not detract from the overriding requirement that governments fulfil their obligation.
By definition.
Delivering for the people - the greatest number at all times - measuredly and effectively by smartly pulling together and managing every conflicting interest in a given society.

BBC Blog Network "Is France's treatment of Roma too harsh?" There's more to it than meets the eye or hits the ear!

It is still early days in this ongoing row over Gypsies/Travellers/Roma between France, the EU and the street where opinion ranges from inflamed broad support to inflamed astonished outrage.
After all it is France of all nation-States!
After all it is a human problem most can connect to, triggering feelings from excitement to indignation.
Most often than not to hyped valuation according to own views on 'the other'.


Roma people have indeed been an unresolved social problem across most of Europe calling for targeted public policy.
Nothing that can be sorted out from one day or one year to the next.


Yet the nuisance created by these Roma - newly arrived from the far edges of Eastern Europe - pose everyday issues no organized State represented by the government of the day can simply overlook indefinitely.
It could be likened to social dumping whereby Romania and Bulgaria transfer thousands of their underclassed citizens to a wealthier EU State.


Gypsies/Travellers/Roma ought to be treated with respect everywhere but their case is much wider than emboldened statements of political correctness would let us believe.
Hopefully for Gypsies/Travellers/Roma some good will arise in the longer run out of the current uneasy situation.


I just wish Nicolas Sarkozy is not using 'the other' to prop up his popularity.That would be so utterly wrong!

BBC Blog Network "Can the new Australian government last?" I think so...

I feel good that the deadlock has been broken and a new government for Australia is in the offing.

In a democracy there is always room for negotiation and compromise when voters dictate so by not delivering clear majorities to any single party.
The ball has been and will continue to be well inside the court of politicians who've finally reached that magic 76 backing Labour.
It is of course the slimmest of margins, indeed a combination that could have just as easily swayed the Coalition's way had the Independents opted differently.
Going forward Julia Gillard's political skills will be fully tested.
Unless rocked by internal dissent I do not see why her government should not last the full term.
If Labour closes ranks uniting behind the leadership likely to be under permanent scrutiny then the current arrangement will be made to work.


The new government's main priorities relate to a fair tax on mining companies' profits - a national wealth that should benefit all Australians - a coherent, workable climate policy with increased input from the underrepresented Greens and reform of the electoral system.
The financing arrangements at Federal and State level concerning health and education is likely a policy priority too.

sexta-feira, 1 de outubro de 2010

TEc - "India's surprising economic miracle" - The country is set to outpace China's growth but India is truly special...

A refreshingly upbeat article on India that does justice to all that is good with the country without dwelling negatively on its downside.Many of the comments posted address the latter from a generally well-captured view of India's gruelling reality for the majority.
Such is the very nature of the country that it can just as easily arise contradictory feelings from the awesome to the disgusting.
India's promise while unfulfilled has come a very long way. Importantly, as The Economist rightly points out, going forward there are many positives placing the country on a rather strong and hopeful footing.Comparisons with China become inevitable but it would still be best to assess the country on its own merits. Setting them against a reasonable timeline, headstart if any and historic background.
I have come to believe India has, besides every other, mainly a set of core issues that it alone can tackle and overcome.
With the economy booming thanks largely to private sector businesses base conditions have improved dramatically but do not suffice to efficiently address those issues.
That requires political as much as societal will from a large enough section of the population.



The upcoming Commonwealth Games of course do not define the country and the diversity of its multiple realities.But it certainly does provide an insight into the daily workings of India. A pretty accurate one at that.
All failings tallied up when the party is over, if rightfully acknowledged, could spawn a new sense/attitude in Indians - those who matter and who can push change - geared to improving general standards across the board across the country.

A massive ongoing challenge, predictably a permanently unfinished job, a never-ending journey towards building a modern country that delivers objectively for its own citizens in the first place...