Former President George Bush was neither right nor wrong. He was only pursuing America's interests in the region according to the political context of his (recent) day. Having messed up badly in Iraq his Administration tried to deflect attention from WMD's (which were never there in the first place) to advancing Democracy in the invaded country.
Then he could also be seen to be concerned with different shades of long-standing authoritarian rule in nearly every Arab State. Perhaps a way to appease an incensed Arab street without taking too many risks with their rulers.
Nonetheless, promoting Democracy, basic freedoms, human rights and the rule of law wherever is to be welcomed wholeheartedly. Especially if pressed on by the country that founded itself on such universal values, remaining to this day a beacon of Hope and Freedom to millions.
Realpolitik working in many guises is likely to have been the main driving force all along. It cannot be criticised or praised wholesale.
Let's be straightforward about it: is every Arab or Islamic-majority society ready for Western-style Democracy?
What all-encompassing lessons can now be drawn - following years of strenuous efforts - of the fledgling 'democracies' in Iraq and Afghanistan?
Despite major differences between them can either be gauged as mostly a success or mostly a failure?
Are Arab or Islamic societies with every known idiosyncrasy inherent to them ripe for democratic rule as commonly understood and accepted in every other existing democratic State?
These are tough questions to which answers may not be as straightforward as one would wish for.
History in each Arab or Islamic-dominated State, social backgrounds, religious divides within Islam, level of economic well-being and imbalances all need be accounted for.
I agree with President Obama's view that America "does not presume to know what is best for everyone".
The Middle East, the larger Arab and Islamic world is riddled with complexities of its own.
To an extent it would be best if left alone to sort out its affairs, each country choosing the way it is to be run.
If the country is undemocratic in the narrow sense but a stable and prosperous kingdom that might one day evolve into Democracy why stir unwarranted troubles now?
Maybe it is too crude an assessment but I believe time and maturity are key factors making Democracy work meaningfully to the benefit of the greatest number.
Anywhere. More so in societies beset by any number of woes...
terça-feira, 15 de fevereiro de 2011
TEc "When allies tumble" - President Mubarak's downfall has begun
Which way Egypt's not-so-quiet-revolution(?) in the making is headed for looks like an unknown variable.
To me this is indeed the most critical aspect of the ongoing popular outburst bringing so many out on the streets.
Authoritarian leaders never seem to realize when to step down on their own. It generally takes a coup d'etat enacted from within by the military or a people-power triggered upheaval to eventually push them out.
President Mubarak - who's not known, to the best of my knowledge, for being ruthless or despotic - seems himself surprised that his country should have come to this.
The coming weeks or months will provide new facts but Egypt is not likely to go back to old-style politics again.
The American Administration, wisely enough, is taking a cautious approach.From a stance that accounts for every other regional political implication. An uncontrolled process in Egypt might ripple across the Middle East in multiple ways. Undesired at the very least.
Lastly, Mubarak stayed put in Cairo interacting with successive Administrations over 30 years as America's key ally in the region.
He saw them in and out of office in Washington as only Democracies may deliver.
I wonder whether any American President since 1986 (or 1991) ever hinted Mubarak that he should move Egypt towards genuine democratic rule...
BBC Have Your Say "Can China become the world's biggest economy?" Not a thesis question anymore.
Perhaps the question ought to be rephrased.
China can certainly become the world's biggest economy. That is no longer an academic thesis type of question.
So much so that for many analysts it is a matter of when not if, less so of possibility.
First theoretical hurdle leapt over a reminder that the latest milestone caps a decade of breakneck speed and overtaking.
China sped past Italy, France, the UK, Germany to now elbow out Japan from second spot.
It is the world's most populated country - by a long shot when compared to the US.
The current growth rate is astounding. More so when set against the historic record spanning nearly three decades.
There is of course no certainty as to such strong growth continuing unhindered.
Large untapped potential, trends and ongoing dynamics point to a predictably hefty rate for many years to come, however.
A slight rate drop does not significantly alter an already big economy growing ever bigger.
For many years China's economy benefited from having got off from a narrow base. Not anymore. Now the country continues to expand at 10%
from a broad base which will inevitably make it increasingly harder to sustain.
China's growth has already impacted the global economy in multiple ways.
From East to West, North to South no country/society has failed to witness first-hand the effects of that impact. While sectors of some economies have been crushed by Chinese competition others have held their ground by facing it head-on.
Or exporting high-end goods to China's burgeoning markets. Or supplying soft and hard commodities the country hungers for.
China has been exercising its financial muscle by buying sovereign-debt from a host of debtor-nations, the US top of the list. Investing only a share of the country's vast stash of accumulated foreign-currency reserves.
Insiders to financial markets - primary and secondary - are likely to know who investors are, on whose orders and wherefrom.
For all the media hype surrounding China's rise the country faces many daunting internal challenges. They cannot be underestimated. Old and new ones too as a result of the country choosing the fast-track to development.
Those challenges will keep it busy creating wealth to meet the needs of hundreds of millions.
Chinese leadership views the nation as poor despite rising average incomes. Rightly so, per capita levels of consumption and social indicators still fall relevantly short of the poorest countries of the developed world.
Real incomes have been rising and even low paid workers can realistically expect improved pay packets in the years ahead.
China's export-driven boom has led to export-market diversification following decoupling from excessive reliance on mature markets.
A positive fallout from the Western world's financial meltdown.
A greater shift to internal consumption is also likely to take place rather effortlessly.
I believe China is moving towards three-engine-driven growth:
Investment, exports and internal consumption.
If it should achieve fair and manageable balance between the three the country is poised for another decade of success.
Provided no major hiccups undercut current assumptions and trends.
As China's profile strengthens and sharpens so will its global role.
But focus will primarily remain on the home front for the foreseeable future.
China can certainly become the world's biggest economy. That is no longer an academic thesis type of question.
So much so that for many analysts it is a matter of when not if, less so of possibility.
First theoretical hurdle leapt over a reminder that the latest milestone caps a decade of breakneck speed and overtaking.
China sped past Italy, France, the UK, Germany to now elbow out Japan from second spot.
It is the world's most populated country - by a long shot when compared to the US.
The current growth rate is astounding. More so when set against the historic record spanning nearly three decades.
There is of course no certainty as to such strong growth continuing unhindered.
Large untapped potential, trends and ongoing dynamics point to a predictably hefty rate for many years to come, however.
A slight rate drop does not significantly alter an already big economy growing ever bigger.
For many years China's economy benefited from having got off from a narrow base. Not anymore. Now the country continues to expand at 10%
from a broad base which will inevitably make it increasingly harder to sustain.
China's growth has already impacted the global economy in multiple ways.
From East to West, North to South no country/society has failed to witness first-hand the effects of that impact. While sectors of some economies have been crushed by Chinese competition others have held their ground by facing it head-on.
Or exporting high-end goods to China's burgeoning markets. Or supplying soft and hard commodities the country hungers for.
China has been exercising its financial muscle by buying sovereign-debt from a host of debtor-nations, the US top of the list. Investing only a share of the country's vast stash of accumulated foreign-currency reserves.
Insiders to financial markets - primary and secondary - are likely to know who investors are, on whose orders and wherefrom.
For all the media hype surrounding China's rise the country faces many daunting internal challenges. They cannot be underestimated. Old and new ones too as a result of the country choosing the fast-track to development.
Those challenges will keep it busy creating wealth to meet the needs of hundreds of millions.
Chinese leadership views the nation as poor despite rising average incomes. Rightly so, per capita levels of consumption and social indicators still fall relevantly short of the poorest countries of the developed world.
Real incomes have been rising and even low paid workers can realistically expect improved pay packets in the years ahead.
China's export-driven boom has led to export-market diversification following decoupling from excessive reliance on mature markets.
A positive fallout from the Western world's financial meltdown.
A greater shift to internal consumption is also likely to take place rather effortlessly.
I believe China is moving towards three-engine-driven growth:
Investment, exports and internal consumption.
If it should achieve fair and manageable balance between the three the country is poised for another decade of success.
Provided no major hiccups undercut current assumptions and trends.
As China's profile strengthens and sharpens so will its global role.
But focus will primarily remain on the home front for the foreseeable future.
BBC's Gavin Hewitt Blog "Democracy-lite won't do for Egypt" - what I can add to it...
Most of what needs writing on Egypt's ongoing struggles has been written by GH in this article.Angela Merkel's one-line comment quoted here is as wise as it gets on how Western leaders should view events in that country.
Of course no-one with basic grasp of geopolitics would ever contemplate a large nation, a pivotal country sliding into a theocracy - an Islamic one at that.
There are hardly any pointers as to how a majority of Egyptians feel regarding their representation in government.
I would therefore stop short of any remark. I simply don't know how popular religious-based groups, or any other, are that the people might actually vote them into office in free and fair elections.
The situation is pretty tricky but again exposes the fragility of positions dealing with rather complex societies such as Egypt's.
I do not think Turkey and Indonesia are quite comparable with most Arab States.
Those countries are working democracies now but the military have in the past played vital roles too.
Still do to this day in each country's internal set-up.
In Turkey the military institution has long been looked up to, trusted and respected by the majority. Especially when politicians have failed the country.
Egyptians will have to find a path to their future.
It will be a path of their choosing.
Western-style democracy is not a one-size-fits-all ready to be worn over by every society overnight.
Democracy is about much more than casting a ballot on voting day.
It takes time and process to root itself in the spirit of the masses who often face much more pressing concerns.
To hasten Mubarak's departure from the outside would run counterproductive to transitioning to a new order, still unfathomable.
If he gets toppled from within Egyptians will bear the full brunt for replacing his autocracy.
Western interests are likely to be safeguarded throughout.
Egypt, however, will be shaped by the Egyptians.
quinta-feira, 3 de fevereiro de 2011
BBC Have Your Say "What next for Egypt?" - A trying time that runs to an unknown outcome.
Momentous events is the least I can say of the unfolding situation in Egypt.
The land of the Pharaoes is seemingly delivering the clearest of messages to the current leadership: your time is up, time for change.
There isn't much I could write about President Mubarak's rule except that it is well beyond the sell-by date.
As with every other regime whose top hierarchy overstays in power, people simply get fed up for any number of reasons. Add to that objective social conditions and Egypt looks ripe for a change of guard.
What it will change into falls in a shaded area for little is known of other influential forces and personalities in modern-day Egyptian society.
Mubarak rose to power following the tragic shooting of Anwar el Sadat - a courageous leader who brought renewed tangible hope to the region. His endeavours marked a watershed in Egyptian politics especially concerning the Arab-Israeli conflict.
In the decades since it would seem that Mubarak has ruled the country in ways most Egytians have now grown tired of - a muscled type of democracy that no longer fills the aspirations of ordinary citizens.
If the popular outburst continues I do believe President Mubarak should resign from office sparing his country further turmoil.Disruption Egypt can ill-afford given the many challenges faced particularly on the social and economic front.
Announcement that he would not be standing for (re)-election in September is too little too late.
The international community should keep a watch but refrain from any overt meddling in the internal affairs of a large, strategically vital and proud nation.
Pulling out nationals or providing humanitarian assistance is one thing.
Quite another would be - for example - to attempt a direct intervention if only to keep the Suez Canal open.
That would be objectionable to most Egyptians under any circumstance. Eventually striking a sensitive nationalistic chord.
Let the Egyptians sort themselves out in their land where the Sun shines every day of every year!
This is my view from Lisboa, Portugal.
The land of the Pharaoes is seemingly delivering the clearest of messages to the current leadership: your time is up, time for change.
There isn't much I could write about President Mubarak's rule except that it is well beyond the sell-by date.
As with every other regime whose top hierarchy overstays in power, people simply get fed up for any number of reasons. Add to that objective social conditions and Egypt looks ripe for a change of guard.
What it will change into falls in a shaded area for little is known of other influential forces and personalities in modern-day Egyptian society.
Mubarak rose to power following the tragic shooting of Anwar el Sadat - a courageous leader who brought renewed tangible hope to the region. His endeavours marked a watershed in Egyptian politics especially concerning the Arab-Israeli conflict.
In the decades since it would seem that Mubarak has ruled the country in ways most Egytians have now grown tired of - a muscled type of democracy that no longer fills the aspirations of ordinary citizens.
If the popular outburst continues I do believe President Mubarak should resign from office sparing his country further turmoil.Disruption Egypt can ill-afford given the many challenges faced particularly on the social and economic front.
Announcement that he would not be standing for (re)-election in September is too little too late.
The international community should keep a watch but refrain from any overt meddling in the internal affairs of a large, strategically vital and proud nation.
Pulling out nationals or providing humanitarian assistance is one thing.
Quite another would be - for example - to attempt a direct intervention if only to keep the Suez Canal open.
That would be objectionable to most Egyptians under any circumstance. Eventually striking a sensitive nationalistic chord.
Let the Egyptians sort themselves out in their land where the Sun shines every day of every year!
This is my view from Lisboa, Portugal.
TEC chart under "Camera obscura" - Are speed cameras effective improving road safety? - I think not if compared in this way.
Not a useful chart that compares continental-sized low population-density Canada with tiny overcrowded Israel plotting number of deaths per '000km of road network against speed camera density.
While Britain has the most speed cameras and the Ukraine, China and Canada the least, nothing significant can be said of road safety as a result.
Cameras are likely to have a domestic - local, regional, national even - impact and do make qualitative reading compared to when they were not there.
International comparisons such as this one are deeply flawed by not taking into account other relevant data.
These are generally mentioned by The Economist.
Which leaves me wondering what the point of this particular chart is.(?)
While Britain has the most speed cameras and the Ukraine, China and Canada the least, nothing significant can be said of road safety as a result.
Cameras are likely to have a domestic - local, regional, national even - impact and do make qualitative reading compared to when they were not there.
International comparisons such as this one are deeply flawed by not taking into account other relevant data.
These are generally mentioned by The Economist.
Which leaves me wondering what the point of this particular chart is.(?)
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Mensagens (Atom)
Mubarak finally made the right decision bowing to the only authentic power that brings legitimacy to rulers.
When the tide against is overwhelming nothing can hold it back except illegitimate means that may only set reckoning day back a little while.
As it is Mubarak showed himself wise enough to have weighed in correctly how unpopular he'd become.
The Cairo street as well as Alexandria's, Suez's and every town large or small that rose up against a long-sitting-incumbent displayed just how powerful people-power can be.
Great news for Egypt, the region and further afield.
The nation at the heart of the Arab world has chosen a new path.
Once the dust kicked up by three dizzy weeks - that shook the country's power structures to foundations - settles down Egyptian civilian and military leadership will have to provide the country with representative government. And decide its constitutional future.
Power bickering and brokering is inevitable but I am confident Egypt will find a way forward.