TEc - On the home front - Angela, the German Chancellor

Internal politics was always bound to catch up with the German chancellor. In fact, it has never been a sideshow at those EU summits. After all she was voted into office to uphold the interests of Germans first.

This is exactly the point at which the European Union project looms large in the picture.
Do common folk in Germany understand just how much they have profited individually and collectively from a pan-European community of nations since its inception in the early fifties?
Do their political representatives care to tell them enough, standing up for factual evidence and in keeping with great German leaders even in the recent past?

It is of course a complex situation that the Eurozone has arrived at but one that demands Statesmanship, whatever that is meant to be nowadays! When financial markets clearly gained the upper hand.
The coming months will put AM's leadership of her country and her vision of the EU's relevance to Germany to the test again and again.

There is plenty of homework for indebted countries to accomplish whether they belonged in a currency union or not. Germany, however, also needs to change its handling of EU matters.
If not, the Union - whose visionary founding fathers and European believers - will stay adrift to eventually founder altogether. Or metamorphose into an irrelevant entity loosely binding utterly different nations unable to work as a bloc.
Nations that never truly overcame popular perceptions of each other..., some of their current leaders actually sharpening those perceptions beyond any rational argument.

It is good Chancellor AM remains strong at home.
She should now start mustering that credibility in the best interests of the German nation bound in Europe well into the future.
Will she?

TEc - Diamond's not forever - On Bob diamond

I'm glad that the authoritative 'The Economist' has had J.O. write a brief yet highly relevant piece.
Will not get interpretative of the man's actions or omissions but there are facts that speak louder than a million words said under whatever pretence.

Such appears to be the case just as we were losing faith in regulators and watchdogs to simply do their job dutifully for the greater good of the greatest number. For fairness, for balance.
In the wake of the financial and banking crisis started in the US in 2007, whose after-effects are being felt by millions, the least that can be expected of top management at banks and financial groups is for them to welcome becoming more accountable.
And check their pay and perks as well for wholesome disproportionate greed, in the main geared to self-agrandizement.

If wrongdoing is confirmed the public expect the gentleman and whoever else connived with him to feel the full brunt of whichever institution is in place to stop bad practices.
Especially in as sensitive a sector whose top leadership must endeavour to regain the trust of the general public.

TEc - Will Angela Merkel blink? - She will. Eventually.

I believe she will eventually blink when it becomes clear which way German interests run. And her own political fortunes at home.
Or which way they, Germany's and hers, will likely be harmed the least.

In this massive arm-wrestling that the Eurozone turned into, other major economies outside the Zone and indeed Europe are pitching in too to voice their concern at the stalemate.

AM has extended the rope pretty much to the limit. The only question now being whether she's prepared to let it snap or will she relax to patch it up to Germany's liking.
Countries most at fault will by then have learned their lesson. Whichever one that is.

Whatever comes to be will mark a turning point in the Eurozone and the larger EU.
Uncertainty remains the watchword.

TEc - Roiled - Oil demand and supply

There's more than a few conclusions to be inferred from the charts shown.
Both on the supply and demand side there were significant changes driven by a number of well-identifiable causes.
Overwhelming evidence shows that supply has kept up remarkably well with demand albeit not immediately. Furthermore, supply increases - despite severe localized disruptions - still outstripped demand increases.
The market therefore is not as hard-pressed as might have been pictured given vanished producers such as Libya.
Saudi Arabia came forward once again to fill the shortfall. It did so in its own timing, exerting an intended powerful influence on oil price escalation. Speculators did the rest.

The 'greening' of the developed world coupled with recessionary conditions in many countries across Europe has meant stagnant or declining oil consumption. Moderate falls are indeed to be welcomed if they should signal a move away from oil dependency.

Interestingly the US managed to raise daily output by nearly as much as its consumption fell.

TEc - The hollow men - On Japanese industry moving out.

How troubled is Japan's sophisticated economy and ageing society really?
This article goes some way explaining but fails to point which way Japan might ultimately be headed for.

It is not unrealistic to accept that the country has entered a phase of relative decline by merit of main competitors rather than its own demise.
I take the view that there are new challenges facing Japan whose peak was reached many years ago. I also believe the nation could still surprise itself and many across the world for it is not done with by any means.
In fact, the trouncing it was subjected to by Mother Nature last year might in the longer run provide the country with renewed impetus and sense of collective purpose.
While other developed economies strugge to get by Japan's looks set to post substantial growth on the back of public investment (reconstruction) and private spending.
Exports will eventually bounce back strongly once the yen settles to fairer rates and industry chiefs weigh in all the options left to them.

It is a measure of how strong Japan remains - despite the most severe punishment of all dealt by Nature - that just over a year later nuclear stations have shutdown but will soon start up again, hopefully on improved safety envelopes.
In the world's third largest economy moving from 27-30% nuclear power generated electricity to other sources on such short timespan is a huge achievement in and of itself.
The trade balance swung into deficit, a new experience to the country in a longtime, but evidence points to a narrowing gap over the coming months.

Japan's leadership, both political and economic, however, must have realised that the country's present and future prosperity can only be sustained if it should retain most of the industrial base intact.
If the economic model hasn't changed significantly over the last 1-2 decades, despite every advance made by the new economy and claims to the contrary, home manufacturing is critical to any country aspiring to matter on a global scale.
Japan Inc. knows it, which probably explains the country's limited deindustrialisation so far.

Japan simply cannot afford to hollow itself out (of industry) after painstakingly building up its level of wealth and hard earned development over consecutive decades.

The paucity of natural resources and propensity to natural calamities - both beyond the scope of the archipelago's inhabitants - leave JAPAN no option but to produce and sell.

It is too soon to count the Japanese people out.

TEc - Rubbish map - The growing waste pile around the world

Staggering figures showing the scale of waste generated by the world we live in and contribute to.
Individual footprints are growing bigger, China's standing out for rapid increase and doubtful means to dealing with it.

The infograph displayed provides conclusive evidence to the amount of rubbish per capita being directly proportional to wealth of nations and consumption patterns.
If the US, as expected, outperforms most (per head and absolute) it is for me hard to explain Norway, New Zealand, Switzerland, Guyana and Sri Lanka!

On current trends the main challenge, however, remains China for every reason I can think of.
I do not know how the country copes with today's rubbish pile, least of all government plans to face that of the future's...

TEc - The gateway to Africa? - South Africa's diminishing relative weight.

Certainly one of the gateways to Africa.
That is what South Africa has long been and has every potential to remaining as.
The good news is that many other African countries are finally settling down to levels of attractiveness unseen until recently.

Nigeria for one is forever the promised land of oil and honey. Overreliance on that single commodity has also brought with it the so-called curse.
Its large population should spell volume market opportunity.
Endemic corruption, poor overall governance, internal religious and political strife have, however, badly undercut its chances of fast balanced development over many years. 

Economic growth has been achieved lately in spite of all those negatives but falls far short of the country's true potential.
The same would apply to many other African countries to varying extent, including South Africa whose headstart is owed to it being more consolidated in multiple ways longer than most.

Indeed South Africa's main challenge from within is how high it sets the bar and aims for it.