GREECE, the European Union and the West

Greece as a nation-State has been 'l'enfant terrible' of the EEC/EU since joining in 1981. 
However, there are today far wider issues at stake concerning a pivotal country whose social fabric and structures have been weakened to levels unacceptable to anyone who understands the central role of politics. Theirs is only part of the overall responsibility in a world dangerously adrift even in what was supposed to be a relatively compact bloc of rich nations.
Issues of relevance demand much greater insight, in-depth analysis many who've dominated much of the public debate and institutions in our time hardly care about.
Everyone is busy pursuing their careers to private gain - political or professional or whatever - that nations/countries/States as a collective are paying too heavy a price in so many ways.
Oftentimes dwelling on the tertiary rather than on the essence of things.

I prefer not to begin to think of Greece cutting loose from Europe to find solace elsewhere. Just yet.
Greece's presence in the Western value system - democracy, defense, economy, culture - is invaluable.
If the country is forced to go down the drain for faults not entirely its own, it will be a bad omen for the West at large.

TEc - My big fat Greek divorce - is D-Day just around the corner?

Every time I read on Greece I am sickened by the extent of the rot that has permeated all levels of a long troubled relationship with the EU.
I can't put it down to a set of reasons that would explain the current mess. What is beyond dispute is that it has consistently built up and hardened.
Words do not deliver the full picture any longer.
A lot has been said of Greece's internal disconnects but the so-called institutions - ECB, ECommission, IMF - deserve solid criticism for their recipe and posturing since long.
To my mind there were at least three levels/layers of issues to be forthrightly addressed from day one by those in charge: Greek governance, European Union governance (including EMU/ECB) and IMF rule-book (applied to a changed context). Broadly speaking it may be stated that all failed miserably...
Now, no one seems to know what the ultimate outcome will be.
The immediate fate of Greeks and that of the EuroZone as we know it(and larger EU) is being devolved to politicians. They are expected to make a political evaluation of it all and decide.
Perhaps that which they should never have so blatantly backed away from.
Accounts are absolutely critical as a reflection of good government at all times.
So is Politics, especially in extraordinary times.

FT - "Greece has nothing to lose by saying no to creditors" by Wolfgang Munchau - a game it is?

It is a disgraceful state of affairs that has known no new developments since long. Unimpressed I was, unimpressed I remain at the lack of progress to shift Greece's plight one way or the other. Which brings me to WM's current article, likely the most enlightening I've read on the matter. 

On the one hand there is the official talk that all are trying hard to overcome differences because nobody wants Grexit. On the other, every bungled meeting is followed by bitterness and mutual recrimination. Where is the overlapping, if any?

That a nation-State should be pushed around like a toddler in need of parental guidance is bewildering enough. Something  has been lost to the Eurozone crisis within the EUnion(!?) that makes relations between countries look like little more than a game of chess.

I trust that on both sides - especiallly the stakeholders who stand to lose the most if push comes to shove - all calculations have been worked out, so what's the fuss all about?

Dragging Greece to the pit's edge wishing for a last-second surrender is as obnoxious as the Greek government gambling on a last-minute demand drop/reversal by creditors. I still haven't seen the Politics searching for the middle ground - broadgauged European politics - in this unbelievably long saga. The main losers being common folk in Greece but also in major creditor nations and in all whose governments have lent money to the Greek State. 

Besides every other loss that cannot be readily counted up!

TEc - Austerity without the anger - Portugal faces general elections

Portugal's predicament remains dire, a condition the country will have to live with into the future.
Years of tough policies, as demanded by creditors in exchange for the bailout money, worsened the social fabric of the nation. The Portuguese - a significant share of them - instinctively know that their country has been driven to its plight by what they broadly perceive as an inept political class.
Many have given up on voting altogether, others simply could not care less about politics.
Nonetheless a majority, grudgingly or not, still cast their ballot on election day. They do so along remarkably consolidated lines, elections decided at the center by a shifting electorate who swing votes between the two major parties.
The upcoming general election will be no different.
The opposition Socialists may only just win enough votes to oust the ruling coalition. The months ahead will be critical for the outcome depending on how these parties present their case. Importantly, on how the economy is seen to be headed to.

Going forward challenges are many and varied.
To my mind they need to be addressed, as they always have anyway, by the country's leadership - a far larger group than the much derided political establishment. Many appear at last to realize structural frailties are mainly to blame for Portugal going to the wall thrice in a mere 40 years. Internal adjustments/reforms are long overdue but will they ever occur?

The upside is the momentous changes that took place in as many years in a country that has basically overreached itself.

Germany has gained the upper hand

Funny world would be mild irony!
Surplus economies settled in blissfully content with their stellar performance oblivious to matching deficit economies. In the Eurozone, the larger EU and the world. 
China, Germany, the Netherlands on one side, most remaining major economies on the other.

Germany has outwitted just about everybody else on its own domestic strengths.

What is striking pretty much squaring everything else is the relative industrial weakness - therefore economic - of each of the other three European majors, the UK, France and Italy - and the USA across the Atlantic. Even where military hardware is concerned Germany is now outselling the UK and France in arms exports, to recently claim the 3rd./4th. spot of international rankings. This comes on top of capital goods, consumer goods, high-technology precision equipment and machinery, pharmaceuticals, etc. The country has over the years not-so-subtly achieved leadership of just about every sector where the other 3 led until recently, isolated or combined.

Mighty(!) Germany has become, on own merit but on the lack of it by many too.

Bottom line is, where others relocated or simply lost out to the global economy Germany stayed the course.

Such decisions that built up its success were made at company boardrooms meeting behind closed doors, politicians having to deal with the consequences later. Trade surpluses or ballooning trade deficits pointing which way a country's overall economic output and strength was heading.

Germany relocated too but moderately and smartly: low-to-mid-end production to neighbours around it or further afield where industries thought it suited them best. To break into fast expanding new markets quick to absorb production redirected from Europe's severe downturn. 

Never letting go of high-value-added production and much, much more.

Stability across sectors from the country's powerful mittelstand has been their watchword.

A winning combination in the enlarged EU, in North America, in emerging markets - China top of the game..., just about everywhere. All achieved keeping a tight lid on internal consumption that can be boosted as soon as the government of the day so decides.

Voilá...this is a German dominated Europe into the foreseeable future(???)

TEc - Greece's economy; Running on empty - Why a longer timeline is called for

Disheartening charts pointing to a deeply depressed economy and society whose rock bottom has so far not seemed deep enough.
Nonetheless, it is fair to say that the the curves clearly point to gains made over 2014 until political change swept across the land. What to make of it all then?

Easy enough, most Greeks simply grew tired and fed up after five years of decline that they were now ready to bet on a new horse with an altogether different approach to the race.
Too late for the incumbents New Democracy to state their case that finally the country was beginning to upswing. Democracy exacted its cost, one might say. There does exist a lengthy time lag between what macroeconomic variables tell and what real people, the constituents, feel. Especially in a context that built up over many years since 2009/10.

The solid question remains as to how much improved is the Greek State now in the broadest sense, or if it can be made to improve further quickly enough by the new government.
I am in no doubt that Greek society (and economy) does have strengths that have been grossly overshadowed by a punishing policy of pressure and contraction.
The country must painstakingly rebuild the economy on a much sounder footing of individual and collective responsibility across the board.
Not a job that may be accomplished overnight by any government.
Perhaps negative perceptions abroad are overblown, misconceptions rife in the midst of the larger EuroZone conundrum whose structural fix is far from receiving the attention it ultimately requires.

Should Greece pull financially through 2015 while enforcing basic rules of good government and governance and bringing hope to average people, then only its rightful place in the EuroZone and the EU will be permanently assured.
Ideology in the form of traditional left/right bias should not come in the way of doing what it takes to set Greece right.
If anything, the new government hit the ground running.
A promising start, a breathing space conquered to tackle internal weaknesses and trigger wider debate in the EuroZone about its future(?).

All charts need be looked at against a long-enough timeline.
Over 2015 much will emerge to show whether the short-term losses now incurred are offset by improved overall prospects for Greece in the medium-to-long-term.
The new government in Athens faces tremendous odds and has a very tall order to fulfil.

FT - Athens faces uphill struggle despite eurozone deal - Steep incline indeed

However disheartening these charts may be they all point to a deeply depressed economy and society whose rock bottom has so far not seemed deep enough.

Nonetheless it is fair to say that the right endings of the curves clearly point to gains made over 2014 until political change swept across the land. How to explain it then?

Easy enough, most Greeks simply grew tired and felt humiliated after five years of decline that they were now ready to bet on a new horse with an altogether different approach to the race. Too late for the incumbents New Democracy to state their case that finally the country was beginning to upswing. Democracy exacted its cost, one might say. There does exist a lengthy time lag between what macroeconomic variables tell and what real people, the constituents, feel. Especially in a context  that built up over many years since 2009/10.

More and informative charts are amiss but the solid question remains as to how much improved is the Greek State now in the broadest sense, or can it be made to improve further quickly enough by the new government.

I am in no doubt that GreeK society (and economy) does have its strengths that have been overshadowed by an overwhelming policy of pressure and contraction.

The country must painstakingly rebuild the economy on a much sounder footing of individual and collective responsibility across the board. Perhaps negative perceptions abroad are overblown, misconceptions rife in the midst of  the larger EuroZone conundrum whose structural fix is still far from receiving the attention it ultimately requires.

If financially Greece can pull through 2015 while enforcing basic rules of good government and governance and bringing hope to the people, then only its rightful place in the EuroZone and the EU will be permanently assured.

Ideology in the form of traditional left/right bias should not come in the way of doing what it takes to set Greece right.

If anything, the new government hit the ground running. 

A promising start, a breathing space conquered to tackle internal weaknesses and trigger wider debate in the EuroZone about its future(?).