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Lisboa, Portugal
Nasci no dia 11 de Junho de 1964 na cidade da Beira, MOÇAMBIQUE.

A Estação dos CFM, Beira

A Estação dos CFM, Beira
Ex-libris da cidade, 1966

The Euro, as a single currency, should be abolished

Another black and white motion statement leaving me no option but to choose No.
While I agree to the first part I am not prepared to contemplate the idea that the Euro should get abolished.
Abolished? Then what?
All 17 countries now sharing the single currency would revert back to their old monies?
Or a new version of yesteryear's currencies?

Simplistic as I made it out to be packed in a few odd questions, every single serious economic, financial and social consequence is inextricably wrapped up within each.
That is where the stakes are high enough to ensure that the Euro is given a new lease on life.
It calls for closer European integration.
What form and shape this will take is for policymakers and far-sighted politicians to grasp and propose.

It would seem to me that the Euro has many underlying strengths but will not - contrary to the founder's beliefs - assure convergence between all the economies it services. How could it?
The divide has been felt acutely lately (1-2 years) the logical consequence of relevant economic under-performance among member-countries.

There has obviously got to be a political solution rooted in realistic economic fundamentals.
The road traveled so far proved artificially smooth during the first 10 years I dare say but unsurprisingly very bumpy in the last 1-2.
It could not have been otherwise given the structural differences setting these countries apart. And excessive spending pursued mostly by a few Southern European States who could not see beyond the present.
Adherence to the Maastricht criteria never again seemed to be taken seriously once countries landed themselves inside the Euro club. Not to mention Greece that never fulfilled the criteria in the first place or ever bothered to balance its books.

Very disappointing to admit but the Euro Zone is indeed right in the middle of a storm testing its main crews to the limit.
The latest summit decisions seem to indicate that where there is a will there is a way.
It may have just been one first small step in the right direction.

The specifics are very hard to work on.
Yet it would seem to me that the 17-member Euro Zone and the larger EU can hardly afford shooting down the Euro.
The broader picture needs to come into full view.
An hypothetical demise of the single currency would deal another severe blow to Europe's economic fortunes.
Its relative decline vis-a-vis the rest of the world would get a further boost.

I do not like misplaced calls for solidarity from Southerners but would rather see the stronger half of the dividing line realize where their medium-to-long interest lies.
To that end many balances across the Euro Zone need to be restored at the earliest.

Europe agrees a "shock and awe" bailout for Greece

A rescue package of epic proportions, epic challenges for the Greek government and people, epic uncertainties and epic stakes for the single-currency.

It was the Euro's defence that ultimately forced politicians from Germany to Malta to perform a hard balancing act whose overall success is far from assured.Each finance minister has enough reasons to fret and grumble about.It being the Euro as a common currency, because of Greece despite Greece.
Up to now every 'least damaging' approach failed miserably to cool down the financial markets that remained as unimpressed as ever throughout.
For its part Greece is effectively the main winner in this high-finance gamble.The country bought time the markets were not willing to give it once confidence vanished.Precious time desperately needed to restore credibility and good governance at home.
A daunting internal fix with daunting external implications.
Three full years is what the government and Greek society top-down and bottom-up now have to set the record straight in so many ways.
Literally and figuratively.

For the other 15 Eurozone countries - each facing own troubles to varying degrees - keeping fingers crossed would be mild to describe the monitoring of Greece's performance over the coming 36 months.Potentially they are all losers, starting out by losing simply to avoid bigger losses!
There are so many relevant questions that might be asked to which full answers ought to be provided.
They won't get asked or get answered.
Tellingly, each and every single one of them would now seem rhetorical or at best an exercise for academia.



The spectre that haunts Europe

I am still hopeful that Greece will not require a bail-out in whatever form pinning my hopes on the PM's own words.

He did sound very bold and brave in the face of such overwhelming odds but until a deal is actually in place I would rather believe the Greeks can and will take care of themselves.

My stance is wholly based not on immediate needs triggered by the Western financial meltdown that led to the economic downturn.This in turn led to a collapse in tax revenues across countries caused by economies shrinking badly.

To a large extent Greece is indeed a one-off case-study for the worst reasons, its latest fiscal deficit the sum total of profligate spending, widespread cultural-rooted tax evasion, underbudgeting, creative accounting, weak notion of public service and duty, etc - all conspiring over decades to bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy.

I am sure many Greeks will have seen it coming and warned their governments in years past.To no avail as even the present government was elected as recently as late 2009 on a platform to increase spending.

According to EMU rules public finances were clearly to remain national responsibilities.A considerable chunk of sovereignty for States to manage through their democratically-elected governments of the day.
Would the Greeks have liked their Finance Ministry to be ruled or dictated to from Brussels or Frankfurt just so the Maastricht-agreed criteria could not have been so despondently ignored?


Current turmoil is the Euro's hardest test ever but one that will also represent a defining moment in the single-currency's future.

It is a fact that Southern European countries are faced with similar issues though not on the same scale and urgency.Others in Northern Europe, the US and Japan also recorded their biggest fiscal deficits and added up noticeably to their debts in 2009.
Each one has its own track-record, however.
This is exactly what sets Greece apart from the rest.
Each country is unique in its own way, there being obviously overlapping between them.

International rating agencies must make the effort to closely monitor and register those differences and then advise financial markets.

After all it is sovereign countries and sovereign debt one is dealing with.

There is much more at stake than strictly soulless bundling of nations.







Arquivo do blogue

quinta-feira, 21 de fevereiro de 2013

TEc - Once in a lifetime - India's central government budgetary challenges


The challenges facing India's finance minister at any given time will remain momentous.
The country's diversity across every parameter gauged is such that regardless of who is in charge much will be left to his successor.
While P.F. has briefly reviewed a few points the single one that would appear to have the greatest scope for positive action is the size of the tax base. Indeed it should be made a national objective pursued by administrations over many years to come.
Changes to tax rates may raise revenues while the economy booms but do not achieve political goals of greater social equality, a level-playing field for companies to compete in, transparency and structural improvement.
If the tax burden should consistently fall on those who already belong in the formal economy a point in time will be reached when the mismatch between revenue and spending becomes chronic.
I suspect it is already the case.
There will be, well into the foreseeable future at least, large enough swathes of the economy in informal sectors. But the ones that could and should be brought under the formal set-up have to be targeted successfully sooner rather than later. Also, for recurrent tax-dodgers, individuals and professions who hardly pay any income-tax, corporate tax fraud and evasion, etc.
Indeed the best time to do so is over long periods of fast expansion as India has been experiencing.
Will there be enough political will to accomplish such goals?

terça-feira, 15 de janeiro de 2013

TEc - Muscles in Brussels - The UK flexes in the EU but is it punching above its weight?


The article highlights the fact that Britain must come to grips with itself vis-a-vis Europe, rather the European Union construct.
Whichever way national leadership sways majority opinion, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is facing decisions that will be defining well into the future.
The EU remains more or less in limbo. Indications, however, point to an ever closer union that is quite indispensable to its very survival. One would hardly know it yet grudginly and very slowly such a movement is taking place. Just barely.Why? 
Because it was never going to be easy or quick to bring together nation-States whose economies, cultures, social structures do show wide dispersion as well as relevant commonality.
In the intervening years from 1973 the most striking streak in British attitudes towards Europe is the very despondency that characterized them throughout. But for heads of British business and a handful of politicians Britons never showed much enthusiasm for Europe as a political project.
Understandable it may be in light of historical reasons, both remote and recent. 'The Economist' presents a few.
The day of reckoning may draw nearer whether or not a referendum is held soon.For unless there's a sea change in prevailing political speech and public sentiment next time the EU adds a building block, and another, the UK cannot simply sit on the side shouting for the best deal yet fearing the worst out of Brussels.
Or does Britain see itself muddling through within the EU into the foreseeable future?

sexta-feira, 11 de janeiro de 2013

TEc asks - Will the world economy be in better shape in 2013 than in 2012? - The answer lies in which part of the world you're on.


I have chosen not to vote because the question is hardly answerable in straightforward fashion.
The world economy does not move in a given direction as one monolithic bloc of economies.
In fact, most of the winning countries of the past decades - the so-called emerging economies - will continue to surge forward posting healthy growth.
The traditional industrial economies of the West - North America, Europe and Japan - each remain mired in their own specific troubles contributing to negative to no-growth to very sluggish rates of growth at best. Europe has been and predictably will continue to fare the worst. The Eurozone in particular is far from nearing anything like economic renaissance it so direly needs. Not until new paths are found to the creation of productive wealth.
Europe's battering is multiple ranging from various internal conditions to the new world economic order objectively underway since 2000 at least. The rise of the rest is now very tangible while Europe looks lost in more ways than one.

However, the economy being an inexact science, there could better outcomes in the second half of 2013 for Europe even for its main current-day laggards.

If I could split the question into several I would say that the emerging world will be in a better shape.
The traditionally advanced economies may or may not find themselves better off. A countrywide multicoloured reality will present itself nonetheless.
Germany is likely to putter along while Italy and Spain will struggle through another tough year.

Hopefully on balance Europe will still manage to show some positive movement.

quinta-feira, 27 de dezembro de 2012

TEc - Chinese growth - Upward bound

China's economy is now comfortably in the second spot behind the USA.
It must be reminded that its origins are very modest to, over three decades of relentless crescendo, overtake every single G7 but the US.
For the time being, that is.


A remarkable feat that has impacted the world in no small measure.
One consequence of an already huge economy is that it is ever harder to achieve high growth-rates.
As such anything above 5-7% is robust by most reckonings.
China's potential is far from exhausted yet its ratcheting up has been so real, consistent and quick that the economy could overheat at any time in the years ahead.
Or the leadership succeeds in keeping the economy running cool at manageable rates thus avoiding bubbles in the making.
Time will tell but Chinese leadership has demonstrated remarkable control dealing with economic issues.
From results delivered that may only be considered stellar.

segunda-feira, 24 de dezembro de 2012

TEc - Halfway to paradise - The allure of Mumbai

A must-read to all who care for Mumbai/Bombay.
As ever the city that never sleeps remains full of promise and challenge.
For all its renowned enduring energy Mumbai struggles on daily to cope with requirements that have long surpassed the ability of multiple systems to deliver.


But hope never fades away in such an environment. It is embedded in the genetic code of hustling and bustling metropolises not to give up regardless of how overwhelming the odds may be.
If the sleek design of this 8-laned bridge-over-the-water-viaduct is anything to go by the future should see many more modern infrastructure projects brought into service: sections of urban highway, the metro line, monorail line, new airport terminal, etc.
Much of it will fall far short of pent-up demand or needs that have built up over many decades.
Nonetheless, a bold start has been made;
Sea-Link underpinning it much more than merely symbolically.

sábado, 15 de dezembro de 2012

TEc - Broken hearted - On yet another mass shooting in the US

It is too late for the children whose lives were cut down early enough for them to begin to comprehend the ways of the adult world.
Just so for every other who survived the latest outrage. These will have a memory to live with.
The latest outrage indeed, on top of every other. There have been countless many before that grown-ups should feel ashamed of themselves for their objective inaction.
Not equally ashamed as only a few bear far more responsibility than the rest of us.


In America regardless of constitutional rights, cultural tradition, individual freedoms (to buy guns) dating back to the country's foundation, the time is Yesterday for a majority resolve on this particular issue.
To my mind there is a clear mix-up between the individual and the collective.
The rights of individuals and potential consequences to a group of individuals who each, theoretically, has the right to hold a gun in self-defence.
If only one of the children at that school had a gun - grabbed from a parent - and were at the right place at the right time, or a teacher, or a staff member and the outcome might have been different.
That's exactly the crux of the matter.

Should each American possess a gun - man, woman or (child) - such outrages could be prevented!!!!
Could they? Would self-appointed killers who premeditated their act take a hit before opening fire on others?


Ridiculous that I should even be writing on the subject.
Gun-control ultimately leading to the lawful ban of gun sales to civilians is a matter of utmost urgency for the lasting well-being of American society.
Statistics say so. Comparative analysis with other societies prove it. Mainly, the depths of our own-selves should be able to reason it out without an opinion being forced on us by whoever.


Lastly, this is random terrorism on the loose. The worst type.
No one is safe in a society where there are reportedly 300m guns in the hands of ordinary citizens.
It only takes being at the wrong place at the wrong time.
No type of terrorism - acts of sheer terror aimed at innocent civilians - is ever acceptable.
This is how American society should start viewing these episodes as.

sexta-feira, 14 de dezembro de 2012

TEc - The London effect - About the change to Britain's population mix


The colouring of Britain would be a suitable title to the article.
From a London that sets the example for the rest of the country to follow.
Volumes of new settlers and offsprings are now sizeable which makes it a welcome development that there's a better spread across the land thus alleviating excessive concentrations.

But a legitimate question must be asked as to what Britain will look like 10, 20 years ahead going by the past decade now tallied up.
At the end of the day the real issue is about numbers and volumes.
It is not indifferent to have minorities of 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35% or more as a percentage of total indigenous population.

30 years ago Mrs. Thatcher publicly aired her concerns over entire communities being swamped by immigrants in the heartland of English cities. She was attacked by many but her point had to be made.
It has already happened and none should feel hesitant to openly discuss it.

For Boris Johnson London's ethnic diversity represents a competitive edge on top of every other plus. A cosmopolitan city drawing talent from all over.
Fair enough if this is the future of an increasingly intermingled borderless world.
Will he still hold the same view say if 10-20 years down the line - assuming current trends stick - there is a complete upset of London's population make-up?
If, for instance, today's white majority (as a single group) becomes tomorrow's minority?

There are of course social, economic, cultural, physical and political implications to such a reversal that British society should be able to deal with right now.
No one should get explicitly or implicitly accused of racist undertones simply for stating an objective point.
A point on the consequences of mass movement and (re)settlement of people. One that might eventually lead to the complete change in the human landscape of a major city such as LONDON.