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Lisboa, Portugal
Nasci no dia 11 de Junho de 1964 na cidade da Beira, MOÇAMBIQUE.

A Estação dos CFM, Beira

A Estação dos CFM, Beira
Ex-libris da cidade, 1966

The Euro, as a single currency, should be abolished

Another black and white motion statement leaving me no option but to choose No.
While I agree to the first part I am not prepared to contemplate the idea that the Euro should get abolished.
Abolished? Then what?
All 17 countries now sharing the single currency would revert back to their old monies?
Or a new version of yesteryear's currencies?

Simplistic as I made it out to be packed in a few odd questions, every single serious economic, financial and social consequence is inextricably wrapped up within each.
That is where the stakes are high enough to ensure that the Euro is given a new lease on life.
It calls for closer European integration.
What form and shape this will take is for policymakers and far-sighted politicians to grasp and propose.

It would seem to me that the Euro has many underlying strengths but will not - contrary to the founder's beliefs - assure convergence between all the economies it services. How could it?
The divide has been felt acutely lately (1-2 years) the logical consequence of relevant economic under-performance among member-countries.

There has obviously got to be a political solution rooted in realistic economic fundamentals.
The road traveled so far proved artificially smooth during the first 10 years I dare say but unsurprisingly very bumpy in the last 1-2.
It could not have been otherwise given the structural differences setting these countries apart. And excessive spending pursued mostly by a few Southern European States who could not see beyond the present.
Adherence to the Maastricht criteria never again seemed to be taken seriously once countries landed themselves inside the Euro club. Not to mention Greece that never fulfilled the criteria in the first place or ever bothered to balance its books.

Very disappointing to admit but the Euro Zone is indeed right in the middle of a storm testing its main crews to the limit.
The latest summit decisions seem to indicate that where there is a will there is a way.
It may have just been one first small step in the right direction.

The specifics are very hard to work on.
Yet it would seem to me that the 17-member Euro Zone and the larger EU can hardly afford shooting down the Euro.
The broader picture needs to come into full view.
An hypothetical demise of the single currency would deal another severe blow to Europe's economic fortunes.
Its relative decline vis-a-vis the rest of the world would get a further boost.

I do not like misplaced calls for solidarity from Southerners but would rather see the stronger half of the dividing line realize where their medium-to-long interest lies.
To that end many balances across the Euro Zone need to be restored at the earliest.

Europe agrees a "shock and awe" bailout for Greece

A rescue package of epic proportions, epic challenges for the Greek government and people, epic uncertainties and epic stakes for the single-currency.

It was the Euro's defence that ultimately forced politicians from Germany to Malta to perform a hard balancing act whose overall success is far from assured.Each finance minister has enough reasons to fret and grumble about.It being the Euro as a common currency, because of Greece despite Greece.
Up to now every 'least damaging' approach failed miserably to cool down the financial markets that remained as unimpressed as ever throughout.
For its part Greece is effectively the main winner in this high-finance gamble.The country bought time the markets were not willing to give it once confidence vanished.Precious time desperately needed to restore credibility and good governance at home.
A daunting internal fix with daunting external implications.
Three full years is what the government and Greek society top-down and bottom-up now have to set the record straight in so many ways.
Literally and figuratively.

For the other 15 Eurozone countries - each facing own troubles to varying degrees - keeping fingers crossed would be mild to describe the monitoring of Greece's performance over the coming 36 months.Potentially they are all losers, starting out by losing simply to avoid bigger losses!
There are so many relevant questions that might be asked to which full answers ought to be provided.
They won't get asked or get answered.
Tellingly, each and every single one of them would now seem rhetorical or at best an exercise for academia.



The spectre that haunts Europe

I am still hopeful that Greece will not require a bail-out in whatever form pinning my hopes on the PM's own words.

He did sound very bold and brave in the face of such overwhelming odds but until a deal is actually in place I would rather believe the Greeks can and will take care of themselves.

My stance is wholly based not on immediate needs triggered by the Western financial meltdown that led to the economic downturn.This in turn led to a collapse in tax revenues across countries caused by economies shrinking badly.

To a large extent Greece is indeed a one-off case-study for the worst reasons, its latest fiscal deficit the sum total of profligate spending, widespread cultural-rooted tax evasion, underbudgeting, creative accounting, weak notion of public service and duty, etc - all conspiring over decades to bring the country to the brink of bankruptcy.

I am sure many Greeks will have seen it coming and warned their governments in years past.To no avail as even the present government was elected as recently as late 2009 on a platform to increase spending.

According to EMU rules public finances were clearly to remain national responsibilities.A considerable chunk of sovereignty for States to manage through their democratically-elected governments of the day.
Would the Greeks have liked their Finance Ministry to be ruled or dictated to from Brussels or Frankfurt just so the Maastricht-agreed criteria could not have been so despondently ignored?


Current turmoil is the Euro's hardest test ever but one that will also represent a defining moment in the single-currency's future.

It is a fact that Southern European countries are faced with similar issues though not on the same scale and urgency.Others in Northern Europe, the US and Japan also recorded their biggest fiscal deficits and added up noticeably to their debts in 2009.
Each one has its own track-record, however.
This is exactly what sets Greece apart from the rest.
Each country is unique in its own way, there being obviously overlapping between them.

International rating agencies must make the effort to closely monitor and register those differences and then advise financial markets.

After all it is sovereign countries and sovereign debt one is dealing with.

There is much more at stake than strictly soulless bundling of nations.







Arquivo do blogue

sábado, 25 de outubro de 2014

TEc - Money burner or money spinner? - At the onset competition should be welcomed...


All manner of questions may be asked when a newcomer arrives to a highly lucrative high-reputation market such as commercial aviation aircraft.
Fact of the matter is a well known Japanese company - a household brand-name whose range of products is pretty wide - now offers what looks like a very well-appointed regional jetliner.
Admittedly competition is tough, established makers feeling challenged will do renewed battle, there are two or three other companies whose products are yet to see the dawning light.
At the end of the day, granted the market is far from crowded, it will be for purchase managers to assess airplanes from different makers on their own merits.
If the +80-seater Mitsubishi's MRJ has the right figures for fuel-burn per seat to match its amazingly sleek design, there's every reason to antecipate its success.
I certainly wish Mitsubishi all the very best marketing its latest product.

domingo, 19 de outubro de 2014

TEc - Why Brazil needs change - Stakes are high in Brazil as change looks desirable


That Brazil needs some sort of change looks like the starting line to a disputed election run-off next week.
As the campaign nears the end millions of undecided Brazilians will be wondering whether to stick with the known devil or seek out unknown good(!?).
It would seem to me that following 12 years of uninterrupted grip on Federal State power the PT has likely become a spent force, to a fairly large degree at least.Notwithstanding many points scored in social advancement through large-scale public policies that won international recognition and acclaim. There will have been misuse of funds, outright fraud and waste but at the end of the day the balance should be assessed.
Brazilian society has ratcheted up to a new level of expectation and accountability of their leadership.
That said, Dilma Roussef's performance leading as uneven a country does not match her predecessor. Lula's charisma and wise choice of advisors and ministers helped his two mandates as opposed to Dilma's rather lacklustre presidency.
Also, it did not help that commodity prices dropped from highs seen before though the country's structural challenges go far above and beyond that.
'The Economist' clearly endorses change and chooses the opposition man-of-the-hour to embody that change.
Perhaps Aécio is Brazil's best bet that it can charter a new course from a higher slot.
Brazilians should know better.

terça-feira, 23 de setembro de 2014

TEc - Britain survives - Scotland The Brave!

This time the UK has only just survived intact.
The SNP's call for outright independence was heeded by 45% of voters in a high turn-out election. A major achievement by any reckoning that a nationalist politician should have taken his cause this far and this close to victory.
It all finds explanantion when set against the background of Scotland's history from afar to times nearer.
The whole picture then emerges sharp and clear.
UK governments in London must pay closer attention to all constituent parts of a Kingdom that once ruled half the world.
Not any more since long, challenges now lie in Europe or arise daily from within.
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland may be dwarfed by England by demography and economy.
At the end of the day each want (NI is different) something more intangible than merely devolved powers.
Scotland's soul has had a chance to let out a scream of some sort.
They did it!

sábado, 30 de agosto de 2014

TEc - That sinking feeling (again) - The Eurozone has not bounced back up

The latest quarterly growth figures for the Eurozone have confirmed that a recovery never initiated in the first place. Europe at large, Eurozone-member countries in particular have barely managed to stay afloat in the midst of a severe multi-pronged structural crisis.
Political efforts to ensure the Euro's survival were no more than circumstantial expediency.
Objectively the can was repeatedly kicked down the road.

The real issue in Europe over the years from 2000 is to find key growth drivers that generate wealth like industry did since the end of the 2ndWW.
As far as sovereign-debt troubles and heavily unbalanced government accounts are concerned it is now clear that jumpstarting the economy is the only path to improve Europe's dismaying fortunes.
The million dollar (euro(!)) question is what is Europe competitive enough at that will promote its prosperity going forward?
A question for the business and political establishment to find answers to very quickly.
Failure to do so will inevitably speed up Europe's decline turning it from relative to absolute.

segunda-feira, 28 de julho de 2014

TEc - Collateral damage - Header that does not do justice to victims


Terrible title to head an otherwise excellent article covering just about all there is to know concerning flight MH17.
The title suits military strategists fine - whether regular armed forces or rebels wielding big guns - and politicians whose morals have long been trashed altogether.
Precious innocent lives have been criminally cut short by a single man hitting a button likely aided by a small party who cheered on. These were the material authors of an outrageous criminal act.
The moral authors, however, bear the biggest share of responsibility, one they should never be allowed to deflect from. On the contrary, no effort should be spared gathering enough evidence to lay the blame at the right doorstep.
Words do not suffice to describe the enormity of yet another major atrocity against humankind.
To my mind the best answers so far were given by the Dutch Foreign Minister speaking at the UN where words might still matter(????) and by the poignant, dignified silent reception afforded to the bodies-in-coffins upon their arrival on Dutch soil.
This criminal episode is NOT collateral.
Crucially, this is moral damage.

segunda-feira, 16 de junho de 2014

The day Portugal kicked off in Brazil

Raised expectations, high hopes, a wishful thought that the national team would deliver a fine win, an acceptable draw, perhaps a defeat by the slimmest margin......
Germany - 4 ; Portugal - 0 is almost too hard to bear when stakes are upped high enough in a country long yearning for some sort of victory.
Yes, over mighty Germany seen as an unfriendly nation even at the best of times.
But SHIT happens, in the pitch, where Portugal can do much, much better.
We all know it, we all secretly hoped they would stand up and face them down.
Or at least, already in despair score one lone face-saving honour goal. 
A nightmare it turned out to be.
And, damn it, everything happened under the watchful eye of a discreetly cheering Angela!
Portugal is definitely down after such a poor showing but not out of the competition. Yet.
The US and Ghana should not be underestimated.
They would better decide quickly whether they want in or out of Brazil 2014.
IBERIA got off to a bad start would be understatement.
Can IT shake it off and get on to a flying finish?

sábado, 17 de maio de 2014

FT - The Eurozone won the war, now it needs to win the peace - An opinative overview


The visionary ideal of an ever closer union ultimately leading to a true European Union remains as far-fetched as ever since current woes began triggered by the financial meltdown.
While apparently the sovereign debt crisis is headed for closure where it manifested harshest, there are far more questions than answers as to the future contours of a mutually advantageous monetary union.

The Eurozone comprises 18 economies whose differences are relevant not least amongst the big 3: Germany, France and Italy - for the incoming European Commission and Parliament to take very serious note of.
And eventually adopt a new approach to the entire European edifice.

On every ground one can think of it is unacceptable to tie countries down indefinitely, leaving them to fend for themselves and yet share a single currency. A currency that objectively does not bring gains to their respective economies. 
With so many formerly readily available monetary policy tools having been removed there is no leeway left in these countries to manage their own economic cycles.

Portugal is a good case in point. The country officially exits the bailout programme today without any cautionary safety net. There are reasons to rejoice at progress made restoring external balances, reducing the size of the State, sharpening the export sector and, perhaps, making the surviving economy leaner. These gains were achieved, inevitably to a degree, at an overwhelming social cost.

For Democracy's sake it is up to politics at national and European level to do 'whatever it takes' to mend societies hit hardest.
This needs to be done concurrently with every action taken to ensure that the ECB saved Euro works to the benefit of all countries sharing it, if not equally at least tangibly to most citizens.
Prolonged economic stagnation wherever is not an option by any seasoned yardstick.