quinta-feira, 28 de abril de 2016
TEc - Spanish steps - uncertain future for Portuguese banks
It is hard to even begin to contemplate the pitiful state of Portuguese banking.
Indeed, I saw some of it coming years ago perhaps because the people in charge were telling the rest of us that the banking system was rock-solid. Yet, it would have caught the attention of more than a few that loans were being given to the wrong people by the wrong hands. Banks and the political establishment have in Portugal gone to bed time and again since long.
Still, I am awed by the sheer scale of the problems as one bank after another - previously deemed as reputable - has simply collapsed. The costs keep piling up further straining already fully stretched public finances despite repeated assurances that taxpayers would/will not pick up the bill.
As things stand nobody knows what will be made of Portuguese banking into the near future. Whether in the hands of larger Spanish banks or the filthy-rich Angolan few, genuine home-grown Portuguese banks held by Portuguese capital look set to shrink further.
To cap it all there are the rather tricky issues arising from the Angolan connection. And the ways its government/leadership finds of exercising power over their uneasy former colonial masters through means close on not-so-sophisticated nepotism.
Nevertheless, the main blame lies squarely in-house with bankers who failed their own folk and country miserably.
The last few lines of the article sum it up beautifully as is invariably the case in a multitude of issues across the board.
Indeed, I saw some of it coming years ago perhaps because the people in charge were telling the rest of us that the banking system was rock-solid. Yet, it would have caught the attention of more than a few that loans were being given to the wrong people by the wrong hands. Banks and the political establishment have in Portugal gone to bed time and again since long.
Still, I am awed by the sheer scale of the problems as one bank after another - previously deemed as reputable - has simply collapsed. The costs keep piling up further straining already fully stretched public finances despite repeated assurances that taxpayers would/will not pick up the bill.
As things stand nobody knows what will be made of Portuguese banking into the near future. Whether in the hands of larger Spanish banks or the filthy-rich Angolan few, genuine home-grown Portuguese banks held by Portuguese capital look set to shrink further.
To cap it all there are the rather tricky issues arising from the Angolan connection. And the ways its government/leadership finds of exercising power over their uneasy former colonial masters through means close on not-so-sophisticated nepotism.
Nevertheless, the main blame lies squarely in-house with bankers who failed their own folk and country miserably.
The last few lines of the article sum it up beautifully as is invariably the case in a multitude of issues across the board.
quinta-feira, 31 de março de 2016
TEc - No, thank you - Is the UK economy condemned to industrial irrelevancy?
A brief overview of Britain's steel industry is made here that provides enough food for thought.
The wider issue that afflicts many other developed economies is how best to counter the overriding Chinese threat - a country that is able to mass-produce just about everything at cutaway prices. As is plainly clear that too because it does not abide by the same rules as in countries/societies whose industries have in a long time had to factor in costs Chinese firms may simply overlook. Not to mention latter-day pollution related charges.
But as China itself becomes wealthier and increasingly developed, production costs and social and political demands there will inevitably rise.
The wider issue that afflicts many other developed economies is how best to counter the overriding Chinese threat - a country that is able to mass-produce just about everything at cutaway prices. As is plainly clear that too because it does not abide by the same rules as in countries/societies whose industries have in a long time had to factor in costs Chinese firms may simply overlook. Not to mention latter-day pollution related charges.
But as China itself becomes wealthier and increasingly developed, production costs and social and political demands there will inevitably rise.
In a world that is far from showing willingness to build a level-playing-field for companies/sectors/economies to compete, how then is steel-making to survive in higher-cost countries such as the UK? Some costs likely need to be reduced but never will overall production costs reach levels achieved in places where general standards are much lower across the board.
How does Germany still manage to display remarkable stability of its mighty industrial sector despite being a high-cost country as well?
Is the UK condemned to watch helplessly the eventual closure of its largest steel mill?
How does Germany still manage to display remarkable stability of its mighty industrial sector despite being a high-cost country as well?
Is the UK condemned to watch helplessly the eventual closure of its largest steel mill?
Strictly going by market-economy purists, tariffs are not to be slapped just as any type of seemingly protectionist measures remain off bounds.
What they fail to mention is that there are enough distortions upstream and far too much at stake downstream if the UK is to attach any relevance at all to what is left of its industrial sector - core industries and manufacturing.
What they fail to mention is that there are enough distortions upstream and far too much at stake downstream if the UK is to attach any relevance at all to what is left of its industrial sector - core industries and manufacturing.
segunda-feira, 14 de março de 2016
quinta-feira, 25 de fevereiro de 2016
TEc - Boris Johnson is wrong: in the 21st century, sovereignty is always relative - I do agree but there is a recurrent English nag on Europe
A remarkably balanced article that is as 21st century attuned as it is wise.
A referendum on such issues is never a soft option. On the contrary, DC raised the stakes to a level he could no longer backtrack from. Indeed, he is only delivering on his own election campaign pledge.
For the British people at large a new opportunity has arisen, yet again, to express their views hopefully from as informed a standpoint as possible. If all the pros and cons of EU membership are balanced against the reality of a fast changed globalized world then I wonder which way majority opinion will sway.
The very outcome as measured by voter turnout and the gap between the Ins and Outs will provide insightful information on UK public sentiment towards the EU.
In the meantime there remain 4 months for citizens to seek enlightment and make their minds up.
That said, however, I have long understood British - should I say English (?) - disquiet about the EU. All suspicion aggravated by the messy state of affairs in Europe underscored by Brussels reaction to multiple events especially in the aftermath of the 2007/8 financial meltdown. And rather disheartening clearly differentiated handling of nations large and small.
Essentially it is an internal question that needs to get sorted out by the UK's political body and people.A referendum on such issues is never a soft option. On the contrary, DC raised the stakes to a level he could no longer backtrack from. Indeed, he is only delivering on his own election campaign pledge.
For the British people at large a new opportunity has arisen, yet again, to express their views hopefully from as informed a standpoint as possible. If all the pros and cons of EU membership are balanced against the reality of a fast changed globalized world then I wonder which way majority opinion will sway.
The very outcome as measured by voter turnout and the gap between the Ins and Outs will provide insightful information on UK public sentiment towards the EU.
In the meantime there remain 4 months for citizens to seek enlightment and make their minds up.
sábado, 5 de dezembro de 2015
TEc - "Light at the end of a long, dark tunnel" - Misleading heading
A fellow reader has named the article's title a misnomer. I fully agree.
Glancing through the edition's highlights I came upon this title and thought to myself there must be some optimism here. Disappointed I was and remained at the end of it!
There is none whatsoever. Zimbabwe is vividly described as a land of hell on earth where the only bright spot is the ruler's old-age-related frailty and what it entails into the near future. The power struggle already raging to find his successor is reported as vicious and unscrupulous. The omens are not good.
Therefore the tunnel may only grow longer if not darker still!
Zimbabwe's path to its current plight has been long and tortuous. Indeed the country has remained in a seemingly never-ending tunnel that is darker than most. For all the regime's rhetoric since 1980, but especially from 1990, there appears to be little it can show for itself.
Or am I utterly misled by my news sources(?) - I have wondered time and again...
Whatever the case, an entire country and its people face continued hardship and political turmoil. The only beneficiaries being a tiny minority of a few thousand who disproportionately split the spoils among themselves despite their lofty public speeches.
I can only hope that a point in time will be reached when Western economic sanctions in place will be reviewed - have they achieved their aims? - every issue properly put in context, genuine African grievances taken into account and a new start attempted, at the very least.
Wishful thinking?
Or is a failed State allowed to fail ever more in a downward spiral that effectively blights the future of millions?
Glancing through the edition's highlights I came upon this title and thought to myself there must be some optimism here. Disappointed I was and remained at the end of it!
There is none whatsoever. Zimbabwe is vividly described as a land of hell on earth where the only bright spot is the ruler's old-age-related frailty and what it entails into the near future. The power struggle already raging to find his successor is reported as vicious and unscrupulous. The omens are not good.
Therefore the tunnel may only grow longer if not darker still!
Zimbabwe's path to its current plight has been long and tortuous. Indeed the country has remained in a seemingly never-ending tunnel that is darker than most. For all the regime's rhetoric since 1980, but especially from 1990, there appears to be little it can show for itself.
Or am I utterly misled by my news sources(?) - I have wondered time and again...
Whatever the case, an entire country and its people face continued hardship and political turmoil. The only beneficiaries being a tiny minority of a few thousand who disproportionately split the spoils among themselves despite their lofty public speeches.
I can only hope that a point in time will be reached when Western economic sanctions in place will be reviewed - have they achieved their aims? - every issue properly put in context, genuine African grievances taken into account and a new start attempted, at the very least.
Wishful thinking?
Or is a failed State allowed to fail ever more in a downward spiral that effectively blights the future of millions?
sábado, 19 de setembro de 2015
TEc - Migration creates a deepening gulf between East and West - issue is much broader in scope
I beg to strongly disagree. This is not about a gulf between East and West or North and South within the EU.
This is a much wider, bigger, far more complex issue than many would have us believe.
There is the obvious humanitarian concern more or less binding us all in the face of heartbreaking images that need no further comment.
Yet there are many more facets to what is an eminently humanitarian crisis with many implications into the future.
This is a much wider, bigger, far more complex issue than many would have us believe.
There is the obvious humanitarian concern more or less binding us all in the face of heartbreaking images that need no further comment.
Yet there are many more facets to what is an eminently humanitarian crisis with many implications into the future.
A pattern is now in full view in the countries that have so far been directly affected. Once authorities, and I believe silent majorities, watch helplessly as their soil is disorderly invaded by thousands in a few hours, albeit peacefully, a new mode immediately kicks in.
It suddenly dawns on many that it becomes a quantitative, logistical, cultural, economic, practical, religious, political, you name it, nightmare as well. Mayhem at the borders calls for something much much bigger than lofty rhetoric or unending generosity.
It suddenly dawns on many that it becomes a quantitative, logistical, cultural, economic, practical, religious, political, you name it, nightmare as well. Mayhem at the borders calls for something much much bigger than lofty rhetoric or unending generosity.
Throwing the doors wide open as Germany (apparently)did initially may be as irresponsible as slamming them tight as Hungary is attempting to do.
There being no definitive solution except ending war and strife in Syria and Iraq, the current inflow has the potential to swell beyond control or remain a problem that is hardly manageable anyway.
There being no definitive solution except ending war and strife in Syria and Iraq, the current inflow has the potential to swell beyond control or remain a problem that is hardly manageable anyway.
Indeed, the millions of internally or externally displaced people - specifically in the Middle East - is so staggeringly high that the world's major countries through the United Nations should figure out a permanent infrastructured homeland for the countless innocent victims of multiple conflicts. Such a UN administered territory might provide temporary shelter to refugees from all nations seeking safety and security, the very basic preconditions for life to exist. It would have to be a bold move costing billions but one to address what has become a permanent feature of our world.
Ultimately it may be the only solution for European nations closest to trouble spots but especially for kin-countries that have long been hard-pressed as Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey.
How have they been coping is now a mandatory question?
Ultimately it may be the only solution for European nations closest to trouble spots but especially for kin-countries that have long been hard-pressed as Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey.
How have they been coping is now a mandatory question?
quarta-feira, 16 de setembro de 2015
TEc - Staying bright in the shadow of a slowdown in China - perhaps unsurprisingly.
No wonder carmakers remain upbeat on China.
The country has skyrocketed nearly from nowhere to become the world's number one producer and consumer of motors in little over a decade.
The current slowdown may be seen down the line as a plateau reached from where the next flight is perhaps being planned. The level hit is high enough that any single-digit growth, however small, equals or surpasses the entire car market of many a country.
Besides, China's GDP growth remains impressive even if halved from the last 30 years' average.
The current slowdown may be seen down the line as a plateau reached from where the next flight is perhaps being planned. The level hit is high enough that any single-digit growth, however small, equals or surpasses the entire car market of many a country.
Besides, China's GDP growth remains impressive even if halved from the last 30 years' average.
Western car makers have already installed massive production capacity in China over the years in a clear indication of unremitting faith in that country's present and future. Indeed they account - on their own or in joint-ventures - for the better part of China's motor-vehicle production.
Given the still huge unrealized potential of Chinese society, today's slowdown is only the first hiccup in a curve that had only been seen speeding upwards up until now.
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The fact that Germany remains on a sound economic footing, and average Germans do not need to worry as much as their fellow Europeans to varying degrees, does not warrant unchecked support for the parties in the federal coalition government.
More so at a time when there are any number of major issues that need to be addressed concurrently.
And variables that must be weighed in at the very least.