segunda-feira, 27 de dezembro de 2010
TEc - "Save the date" - Predicting China's rise to unseat the USA. Is it no longer an if?
The economy is not an exact science, leaving ample space for variation.
Going by economic history for the past 2 decades, more so the last one, the trends for China and the US are very nearly cast in stone.(?)
The multiple reasons for growth and growth potential in either country too.
The logic of full-blown American invented capitalism - free capital flows, free markets, free trade, free banking and finance - all now favour China not the US.
If, however, an unforeseen event or circumstance crops up that alters current assumptions then those trends can head off in a different direction.
Right now that seems unlikely though.
Japan, the previous runner-up failed badly to fulfil predictions made earlier on in the 80's.
Why?
It is not difficult to find sensible answers.
China, however, even if it were not racing along at breakneck speed is an altogether different story.
Need I only mention the country's size, demography, iron-fist rule, still untapped potential and apparent collective focus?
For "The Economist" it is no longer a question of 'if' but 'when'.
Going by economic history for the past 2 decades, more so the last one, the trends for China and the US are very nearly cast in stone.(?)
The multiple reasons for growth and growth potential in either country too.
The logic of full-blown American invented capitalism - free capital flows, free markets, free trade, free banking and finance - all now favour China not the US.
If, however, an unforeseen event or circumstance crops up that alters current assumptions then those trends can head off in a different direction.
Right now that seems unlikely though.
Japan, the previous runner-up failed badly to fulfil predictions made earlier on in the 80's.
Why?
It is not difficult to find sensible answers.
China, however, even if it were not racing along at breakneck speed is an altogether different story.
Need I only mention the country's size, demography, iron-fist rule, still untapped potential and apparent collective focus?
For "The Economist" it is no longer a question of 'if' but 'when'.
Subscrever:
Enviar feedback (Atom)
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário