TEc asks - Will the Euro survive 2012 intact?

I am utterly and wholly unable to answer this question.
As it turns out the Euro's survival no longer depends on politicians' ability to convince financial markets that they are prepared to mount its defense at any cost.
In 2012 the markets will continue to push yields up - they will have plenty of opportunity to do so picking one country at a time - taking the EMU to the brink.
Which domino will eventually withstand upright drawing a neat line beyond survivability mode?

For the rest of us mere passive onlookers there remains only uncertainty on top of uncertainty.

TEc - The dating game - China's rise

Well done!
Simple and easy for any layman to understand what is going on regarding China's largely perceived rise to economic prominence.
Readers are afforded fiddling to their liking with two variables that sum up economic performance thus obtaining different overtaking year-dates.

One assumption, however, goes unmentioned but is internally concocted(!?) as a certainty: China will sooner rather than later become the world's biggest economy ending the long presidency of the United States of America.
It has lasted well over a century until China woke up from a long slumber to make the ongoing impressive dash to the top.
While common folk don't quite understand yet what the implications are/will be - they can't be blamed for that anyway - I often wonder if American leadership generally does. And if so, what action will it undertake to at least hold US ground.
Not by seeking to arrest China's inexorable growth but aiming to achieve and keep a decent second.
Or keep the number one spot for as long as decent growth in a mature market/economy may assure?

Far too many questions remain unanswered in the tectonic shifts brought about by gobalisation as has taken hold.
Maybe they will not get asked until it becomes self-evident what follows from economic decadence.

TEc - Running out of steam - Asia's ascent

The future is not predictable with accuracy yet trendlines and historical data provide useful clues.
When it is about countries as collective entities - each one being a rather complex reality on its own - fast paced development is fuelled by internal as well as external variables.
Both these remain largely favourable to fast economic growth even if slower than up to now.

Besides, Asia is not a homogeneous bloc that moves forward unhindered by what happens internally within each country and elsewhere.
It does share one important specific characteristic: emerging economies possess vast untapped potential both in demography and unfulfilled needs.
This is totally unlike countries that already reached developed status long ago such as Japan and the original Asian tigers to a lesser degree.

I would group Asian countries into three tiers: developed, middle-income developing fast and low-income developing very fast.
All together make up the world's fastest growing continent with the greatest potential to keep growing for many years to come.

It is way too soon to claim that their rise is running steamless as much as overstating that ascent in the longer run.

TEc asks - Will Britain avoid a second recession?

Sadly I have voted No knowing that chances are high a technical recession is in the offing, if only briefly.
It has been an unfolding never-ending saga in the Eurozone where prospects remain uncertain at the very least.
Britain's economic performance largely hinges on how the Euro crisis and its fallout play out over the course of 2012.

Unlike Germany's broad based industrial sector ever ready to deliver the goods to willing buyers, Britain's strengths and outreach are considerably more limited.
Financial services regardless of their size can hardly make a bigger contribution than they already made over the boom years.

The underlying question is how to get excessively debt-ridden countries - Britain included - on the path to sound economic growth.
I would hope to see some solid answers come in over 2012.

TEc - Trading places

A very significant milestone no doubt.
It may be regarded as a welcome development that suggests a better balanced world broadly understood to mean more evenly spread purchasing power across countries.

Nevertheless, it is worrisome to realise this is a combination of a positive and a negative. The positive is of course growing disposable personal incomes in emerging economies. The negative is the seemingly excessive contraction taking place in many developed economies.
While the former should be seen as a natural development in absolute and relative terms, the latter if unchecked is very disturbing indeed.
Slow or near stagnant growth is often a logical consequence of mature markets in developed nations.

More balanced global trade flows are only a reflection of current and a decade-long of economic performance worldwide. Itself a consequence of re-location, globalisation, absolute free trade, free western-market access and free capital flows.
They disguise the fact that individual countries are facing severe overall downturns and poor prospects.
Feeling the pinch much harder than others with little or no room for manoeuvre.

TEc - A comedy of Euros

I'm beginning to wonder whether there's any use left for Summits that don't deliver on fundamentals.
Or whether there is anything at all politicians can do to right wrongs especially when up against those-by-now infamous financial markets and rating agencies.

Setting aside rhetorical questions that keep nagging nevertheless, the latest Summit fell far short of expectations raised to make or break status. What next?
Pace of events will continue to be determined by the bond-market/s. Politicians have been cast to the sidelines merely reacting after the fact.
Germany's Angela Merkel is again a winner in that her long adopted step-by-step approach remains firmly in place.

We move into 2012 not knowing if the Euro can endure much longer under current assumptions and self-imposed strictures by the relevant institutions underpinning it.

If only I could spot a ray of hope besides believing (wishfully?) most leaders are fully aware of where the stakes are should the Euro fail.
Every nation in the EU - and further afield - will be a loser the difference being the size and permanence of the loss.
But also if hard-pressed financially-strapped countries fail to resume sound economic growth.

TEc - Double your income

The two charts confirm a faster pace of income growth taking place in the two demographic superpowers of the world.
The real name of the game is: catching-up.
Which is exactly what China and India aimed for and are achieving to different levels of success.
Narrowing the wide wealth gap between rich and poor nations is about economic growth rates being bearish in mature markets while remaining bullish in less developed ones over many decades.

If current trends stick a new world order is dawning.
What has been seen so far is only a foretaste.

TEc - Into the storm - Britain's economy

Britain's case is every bit as important as the Eurozone's for reasons stretching well beyond current woes affecting the latter.

The United Kingdom is one of the long-established nations of the industrialised world.
It chose to retain its own currency as well as every other tool to manage the economy sovereignly.
Evidence shows, however, that it is hardly in any better shape than most other highly indebted countries of the developed world, large or small.

Why?

Unless that single one-word question is correctly addressed there can be no proper resolution to the daunting challenges facing the UK economy.
It must also be said that this is despite financial markets still eyeing the UK with extreme favour.
How else can Britain's low borrowing costs be seen when set against its macro figures and real growth prospects?

Each country is one of a kind presenting clearly an individual track-record, present strengths and weaknesses and future prospects.
Close analysis quickly offers multiple data to back up relevant differences.

It would seem that the Chancellor of the Exchequer did not have an option other than to cut back on runaway spending. Where he failed was that overconfidence that his policies would spur growth quicker.

But how can that come about when recent past growth was owed mainly to overblown banking and financial services, excessive public and private spending adding up to those towering debts?

Like the so-called periphery the UK also embarked on a limitless spending spree. In fact the country's fiscal deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio combined or independently, is worse than most in Southern Europe, Greece the odd exception.
Furthermore, total debt - public + corporate + household - is by far among the highest, Ireland the odd exception here.

Then there is the powerful argument of growth potential, a meaningful one doubless. Used by market analysts to severely punish Southern countries but what truly will drive British growth in the future?

Having already been revised downwards through 2014 one wonders why financial markets remain so benevolent towards the UK while battering others including Germany lately.

There must be a one and only explanation: the Bank of England.
As long as the institution remains rock-solid in place as the government's lender of last resort markets and investors may stay calm almost irrespective of the debt pile's height?

George Osborne's efforts are therefore right in the sense that throwing debt on top of debt is unsustainable by definition.
It has got to stop at some point in time.
In the UK's case that point was reached years ago.
So too in most countries who overspent as nearly the only means to cause the economy to grow.

A very difficult balancing act now faces governments in the US and many in Western Europe.
In the immediate reining in public finances to rational and sustainable levels is paramount.
The underlying issue much broader.
It is about industrial production and other wealth drivers that may sustain rich economies over time.

In this regard the UK is relatively ill-equipped unless more than a few embedded trendlines are quickly reversed.

TEc - No land of giants - Britain's manufacturing

A brief overview of Britain's relative manufacturing demise spanning three decades also accompanied by sheer financial inebriation.
As the country's industrial heartlands were being ravaged by successive factory closures, the City in London bragged about its financial prowess. As if it could on its own lastingly represent a substitute for production of tangible goods.

I never could understand how a nation of solid manufacturing credentials dating back to the 18th century seemed wilfully contented - at the highest levels except for a few disgruntled voices - with its new-found role as one of the world's financial hubs.
Not the sophistication and volume of financial services - Britain was always known for them - but its increasingly unchallenged dominance as if the rest of the economy could simply be sidelined irreversibly condemned to decline.
After all if China and other low cost producers would happily become manufacturing powerhouses why not surrender without a fight to overwhelming evidence of economic sense(?).
Most of those who made decisions over the years will have thought no further than immediate profit, cost and scale while politicians patted on their backs unaware of far-reaching looming consequences.

The UK's economy's weakness is now fully exposed.
Facing an appalling trade deficit and insufficient yearly revenue from the mighty Services the country's current account balance threatens to remain permanently in the red. That means seeking external finance to fill the gap adding to the already massive public and private debt pile.

How short-sighted it was not to have sought the commitment from Britain's top businesses to continue to mass-produce at home first and foremost.
If the economic model has not not fundamentally changed from the 80's - consumption of durables is still key - will it ever be less than relevant where goods are actually made?

Giant or no giant companies the UK needs to reinvent itself tracing back to its industrial roots what truly put Great before Britain.
Rebalancing the UK economy is the only way to address structural imbalances reflected in the macro facts and figures that have now become ingrained in the British set-up.

It takes time, investment, policy and a vision for the country in the years ahead.

TEc - Latitude - North and South in the EU

The charts do back the text and deliver a quick snapshot of the two groups should countries be so lumped into each group.
It is questionable if this should be done as individual assessments clearly provide widely disparate initial and final standpoints.

Nonetheless, assuming there is financial, economic, cultural and climatic parenthood between countries as grouped then their performance is only a reflection of what was known all along. Right from the Euro's inception to this day. Only made worse.
Still, can an eminently industrial economy as Italy's - a longtime member of the G7 - be bagged with Greece?

That said, there is and there has always been a North-South divide of sorts in Europe. There is one worldwide too as indeed within most countries even.
The creation of the single currency was about achieving gradual economic convergence among diverse participating nations. Over a long timespan certainly.

On balance it may now be said that the opposite came true.
The most disturbing chart of all is on industrial production - wealth-driver, showing a 15% drop in the South compared to a near 10% rise in the North over 10 years.

If the Euro is to succeed and survive through another decade countries north and south of the divide have to strive harder for sound economic growth.

TEc - Dance of the giants - USA & China

The theater may be South-East Asia, the body of water the South China Sea.
The hard evidence however is that America is increasingly turning its attention to the Asia-Pacific region. Rightly so.
The reasons are plain for everyone to grasp ranging from economic interdependence between the US and China to the net worth of each of the countries brimming with self-confidence and robust economic growth.
On the downside, self-inflicted relative irrelevance is increasingly growing out from Europe now compounded and fully absorbed by the Euro crisis. Complex as it is, Eurozone troubles underpin a general malaise felt across Europe only just sparing a few nations.
These have buckled multiple trends witnessed in most countries and could indicate that Europe is not irreversibly past its prime.

But for now positive action is taking place in South Asia, South-East Asia and Asia-Pacific, Central and South America, Africa and the Middle-East.
America's leadership has long sensed that.

It is highly significant that the US should try to reassure traditional friends in the Asia-Pacific region ahead of a fast emerging China.
China for its part - judging by some of its most outspoken mouthpieces - may sound bullish beyond what might reasonably be expected of a rising major country.
A country that has long yearned to re-take its rightful place in the world.

In this game of power and influence both the US and China will only do so much.
Most individual countries in the region continue to boom and will, for the better part, seek to accommodate both giants furthering their own national interest first and foremost.

Dance they may - China and the US - but the tunes will have to cater for local listening tastes - from Taiwan to Australia - too.

TEc - Mapping migration - China's and India's diasporas

If anything these figures tell us that the world's two most populous nations have comparatively small diasporas.
Migration from these two potentially major points of origin has taken place in waves that match specific historical contexts.

Latter outflows have seen Indians flock to the Middle East in relatively large numbers mainly as temporary economic migration. This is totally unlike longtime settlers full-fledged citizens of ethnic Indian origin in places as far apart as Mauritius, South Africa or Trinidad and Tobago to mention but a few. The same goes to citizens of Chinese origin scattered around every country in South-East Asia.

Can many among these many millions appropriately be referred to as part of the diaspora?

The Nico and Angela show - France and Germany

Nicolas and Angela are the leaders of the day entrusted with running the two EC founding members/core countries of France and Germany. The weight of their economies and demographies, albeit relevantly gapped, catapulted them to the foreground amidst a deepening Eurozone crisis.
There are enough variables to the entire Eurozone equation such that they would not fit into this brief comment.

It should not be left unsaid that while Germany strengthened from within since globalization took hold in earnest, every other big European/EU economy - France, the UK, Italy - weakened to varying degrees and for different reasons.
Economic growth was mostly sluggish across the 4 - the UK showing mostly paper-based growth now undone - but unlike the other 3 Germany stood its ground insofar as industry is concerned.
To my mind this is by far Germany's major underlying strength setting it apart from the rest of the pack.
It does have the capacity to kickstart growth at short notice - export or domestic consumption-driven - as seen by the rebound of 2010 and 2011.
The other big 3 cannot leverage growth in quite the same way. Industrial sectors have retreated somewhat in France and Italy. The UK has long witnessed an industrial slide/departure to which the weakness of up-until-recently booming financial services has been added.
The other surplus countries in the EU - to scale a few may even surpass Germany - might feel broadly represented in the ongoing discussions to sort out the Eurozone.

Anyway Europe is not run by France and Germany, or Germany alone.
Not formally at least.
But the de facto situation of the EU - the Eurozone in particular - is one that calls for action by heavy-weights without whose engagement no solution may begin to be found.

As long as markets perceive there is no backstop to financially-strapped economies, no lender of last resort able or willing to bank-roll needy States at affordable rates, they will continue to push their gains - speculative or not - until something somewhere gives in. To them the EMU is an oddity worth testing to destruction(?).
The system is as merciless as always acting as a predator ever ready to hunt down the next prey. The very prey it kept on feeding ahead of the chase to kill.

In a fast changed/changing world Germany might be tempted to go it alone. It takes increasingly redirecting its exports(already proportionally redirected as natural flows) to emerging countries, China outstanding by a long shot.
German intelligentsia, political establishment and informed average citizens ought to see much farther than that.
For Deutschland, for Europa.

In the meantime one hopes that the unbalanced duo will succeed in their endeavours to keep the Eurozone-17 going.
They are tasked with huge responsibilities.
Their efforts so far should not be underestimated or naughtily down-played.
By any reckoning it is a daunting challenge politically, economically and financially.

Lastly, countries that overspent to become addicted to external finance are now seeing the extent to which they put themselves in harm's way.
Directly or indirectly this has already caused changes of government in 4 with Spain likely to be added soon.

Unfortunately, it is in the very nature of this business that change of political staff at the top does not mean an end to the sovereign-debt crisis.

TEc - Staring into the abyss

It is hard to stomach an article as realistic as this one concerning Europe's current fortunes and projecting them into the foreseeable future. Eurozone sovereign-debt triggered woes likely being only a symptom of a larger set of problems besetting the Old Continent.
The broader picture unfolded shows far too many dark spots whose correction is not forthcoming. Unless many can begin to agree on structural causes, consequences and possible reversals.

There is no easy way to fix such complex issues reaching far and wide. If, however, they should get summed up in two words they would be: industrial production.
Individual European countries have fared markedly differently showing strengths (and weaknesses) to widely varying degrees too. The strongest ones are those that after the first decade of globalization still retain their production base largely intact.
Yet as stand-alones no single European country, not even the biggest economy of them all - Germany, will make much of an impact in a fast changing world pecking order. This is why the EU project far from being obsolete or getting demonised should receive renewed impetus from all who can see beyond today and the following day.

I would therefore like to interpret the ongoing Euro crisis as a loud and clear wake-up call.
While the need of the hour is to find a working settlement that will assure the survival of the Euro, the medium to longer run desperately yearns for oversized political action rooted in sound judgment and foresight.

TEc asks - Is Barack Obama a centrist?

If centrist is supposed to mean a politician who holds moderate views on all public issues then yes Barack Obama is very much a centrist.
His leadership has so far shown remarkable endurance in the face of great odds some of which are deeply embedded in the system.
In fact, it is hard to carry forward moderate, no non-sense, balanced policy in a world whose many powers are often shadowy in their workings. Most often than not they run contrary to the public interest.
Some of those who pursue such conflicting interests to the extreme objectively see themselves over and above the law, public scrutiny, regulation or any form of democratic control.
This has become self-evident on multiple occasions over recent years.

BO has permitted a whiff of fresh air to flow in but he has also laid bare the limitations of US government at a time when the country remains fundamentally economically weakened.

His sharp intellect, broad-mindedness and balance remain one of the best assets to be found in America's political class.

TEc - A Greek bearing gifts

As the Greek Olympian took the torch close to the fuse - and threatened to light it up - Eurozone protagonists were eerily reminded of just how fragile it all is.
The vulnerability is now so starkly exposed that anything may indeed come to be.
Predictability shied away into complete oblivion having been wholly replaced by uncertainty.

A near brush with implosion it was. One that has apparently been averted this time. Just who the next Olympian with suicidal instincts will be - with a willingness to make others share in the experience - is very much open to question.
Italy may soon draw a great deal more attention than Greece, easing perceived pressure on the latter.

Economic growth or the policies that might restore it is far from receiving the sustained focus it deserves.
While stemming the crisis with sovereigns is paramount, austerity alone will not guarantee desired outcomes.
So how to promote meaningful growth while concurrently reining in public finances?
This question is hugely challenging in the wake of years pursuing an utterly wrong model(?) almost exclusively based on debt-fuelled private and public consumption.

Regaining access to financial markets 2, 3 or 4 years hence is meant to then spur economic growth much as it was done up until recently?

TEc asks - Should Greece leave the Eurozone and return to the drachma?

I had to dither briefly before casting a No vote. That is bad enough!

I must add that I never ever understood how Greece was let into the Euro in the first place. Academic now? Maybe, but that also underscores every other view held today as to why Greece should get one last chance. First and foremost for its own sake, brushing aside fears that if it did leave the Euro and the EU might quickly begin to unravel too.

A country of over 11m at Europe's southeastern corner should take the blame for past mistakes committed since 1981. No more.
The sovereign-debt crisis afflicting many others in Europe and the USA is not of their making. It would not go away the following day.

I do not think quitting the Euro is a realistic option any more than Greece escaping from the long direly called-for multiple internal adjustments.
This is the real test for Greek leadership - both political and wider civil society - to reset the country on a new measured footing.

Excessive borrowing could never be healthy. Or could it ever be carried on indefinitely.

The real drama here is that the Euro has been so fundamentally undermined by foolish excesses disguised as economic growth.
Outside the Euro Greece would not be better off. Such a move would only speed up the country's economic and social decline.

Nearly troubling to varying degrees would be the fate of remaining Euro members...

TEc - The burning fuse - George Papandreous' high gamble

Just when it seemed the Eurozone had taken the boldest step so far ahead of the G20 French Summit Greece succeeded shining the spotlight upon itself.
It did so through the announcement of its ruling PM who, it is now becoming increasingly apparent, was mainly playing internal politics with far reaching external audience and consequence.
Finding himself in a tight corner as he has long been Papandreou figured out he had to act dramatically. So he did.
High gamble it is but what options are there in a country that's in a damn if you do, damn if you don't conundrum?

Will GP's government survive through today?
If it does what next?
If it doesn't what next?

TEc - A Greek drama

Drama and Democracy are being played out to the full with Greece's PM's latest twist following suit on what appeared like a deal that generously offered the country pardon to the tune of 50%(?) of its debts...

Political gambling has effectively been elevated to the highest point.
George Papandreou deliberately upped the stakes to a level edging on sophisticated blackmailing of his European peers.
From now on Eurozone leaders, the markets, international stock exchanges, investors, bankers, rating agencies and the wider world will know that a small country can wreak havoc on a financial system that has long rested on dubious assumptions.
Should it be seen under a different light and Papandreous' stunt could be likened to an act of political mastery.
Set against all the odds facing Greece it becomes almost academic to know the outcome of the purported referendum.

For the EU uncertainty, unpredictability and a freewheeling course in the near future now seem even more assured.

Words are insufficient to properly describe what is going on.
If yesterday very few knew how to lastingly fix the Eurozone fewer still do as of today.

TEc - No big bazooka

Yet again the latest deal has shown that Mrs. Merkel's step-by-step approach won the day.

There does appear to be real boldness however, when all three major decisions are assessed independently and taken together. Not least formal acknowledgment of Greece's inability to pay its debts and the generous haircut agreed upon.
Technicalities are complex enough, consequences far-reaching that political will was on display to a considerable degree.

It is fair to say that while a final resolution to the Eurozone crisis is still a long way off, substantial extra track has now been covered to that end.
Unlike previous ones this has been the bigger step forward so far.

TEc - Time for Super Mario

Super Mario?
The one who felled or who rescued the Euro?
Is it a matter of personality (that does count but not fully) or are we all looking for something radically different as a last hope?

Questions aside the ECB is the cornerstone of the Euro edifice.
Its top leadership and direction does therefore matter especially in troubled times such as the current one.

Perhaps understandably very few people are truly aware of the gargantuan tasks needed to redress the Euro.
If it is a bridge too far then the world will shortly know from the meetings due.

I find a single lonely word to best describe the current state of affairs: uncertainty.

A freshman at the helm of the ECB should provide a renewed breeze.
Delivery on the sovereign-debt crisis now engulfing a fair number of European countries takes a much wider circle.
In tune on critical issues.

TEc - In the mire - Portugal

A generally well-captured view of Portugal's predicament as it sails into unknown waters, i.e. the outcomes of current austerity presented and largely understood as a no-alternative programme are far from assured.
Doom and gloom should follow with a grin of resignation at best.

The country's institutions/companies/society got used to and got away with ingenious ways of circumventing sound management and accounting practices. Adjusting forcefully to smaller budgets at micro level will now be as challenging as meeting the macro targets set for Portugal as a whole.
The game in town is called "holes" that for longer than I can remember - both in fat and lean years - kept cropping up suddenly from the apparent normality of day-to-day business.

On the upside there is also a resilient country able to deliver quickly. Booming export sectors despite tough competition bear testimony to this.

Next year's contraction put at 3%(?) is despairing enough.
But Portugal might yet disprove its own pessimism to post a better all-round result at the end of 2012.
So I remain hopeful.