TEc - Moody bleus - France's rating

The second sister has just caught up with the first.
It won't be long before the third joins the two.
There and then the three will increasingly decide France's fortunes in bond markets.

Such is the logic of the system, the natural order of things, the déjà vu setting that has carried every peripheral country to its present plight. Risky debt warrants risk premiums on top of rates in an upward spiral eventually driving entire nations/economies to the wall.

The most unfortunate circumstance is governments relied on debt to finance expenditure way above basic rules of prudence.
Once rating agencies - the sisters (3 of them, all US-based) - determine what financial markets should do and both gain the upper hand, politicians and governments look hapless, dejected, thorn between a crude systemic function and their peoples.
Who wins the contest?
The system, the very system they ought to know inside out.
To the detriment of countless millions among their own citizens.

I would like to believe that France will be different for all its underlying strengths and pivotal role in the EU and Eurozone.
Its strengths should, on balance, outweigh weaknesses and rigidities.
The tug-of-war has just begun.

There are now only 4 triple As remaining in the Eurozone.

TEc - Making great strides - Bangladesh's gains

An impressive video report that does justice to what has gone right with Bangladesh. And it is not little for an overpopulated huge flood plain whose natural challenges are permanently as demanding as those posed by man.

I have been pleasantly surprised by improvements reported here not least because they were achieved despite overwhelming multiple odds the country has faced since birth in 1971.
Empowering women as agents for economic and social change seems to have been the root cause of gains made.
In a Muslim society this strikes as of great relevance.
It does show countries need to tackle their problems with ingenuity and inborn/inbred solutions.

Despite grinding poverty afflicting the vast majority, there are pointers turned firmly upwards Bangladeshis can genuinely feel proud of.

TEc - Battling French decline - France steps up to the plate?

No political leader aspiring to do the things that need doing can give more than a sigh to popular ratings.
No matter how important to remain in touch with the populace, government is about running day-to-day business with a clear view to the future. To that end any responsible French President backed by responsible advisors could no longer ignore the real issues explaining France's underperformance and new challenges posed by the global economy.

France has a long tradition of enlightenment, culture, human rights, values, innovation, savoir-faire and state-of-the-art technology.
However, it cannot go unnoticed that the country has slipped in industrial competitiveness vis-a-vis next door Germany. A relative decline it has been for which adequate measures must be enacted now that will arrest and reverse the slide.

Home to such world-famous names as Mirage jets, Exocet missiles, Areva nuclear reactors, Airbus commercial aircraft, Carrefour retail chain, TGV/high speed trains (itself a brand-name), Renault-Peugeot-Citroen cars, Total oil, perfumes, champagne, etc, France must ensure it retains all of these by providing a business-friendly environment for them to prosper and invest in.
To my mind this will be Mr. Hollande's most critical test.
His administration has already given due relevance to Louis Gallois' report. It has started out in great style acknowledging the need of the hour as pin-pointed by one of the country's greatest managers.

Changes to VAT rates seem to me generally well-balanced between a desired increase in overall revenue and a cut to the reduced rate on essentials.

Many governments across the developed world face similar problems to varying extents. Most are underpinned by excessive State spending over many years now demanding adjustment in line with tax revenue.

Turning France's fortunes around will require time, reform and boldness.
First steps in the right direction appear to have been taken.
More will follow but balance must remain the keyword.
The stakes are high enough for France, the Eurozone and the wider EU.

TEc - A new Atlantic alliance - Brazil reaches out across the South Atlantic

A natural environment to work in as any number of commonalities would spring to mind between Brazil and Africa. Lusophone Africa featuring prominently for reasons that do not need telling.

Also, if Brazilians can make a real difference while competing with Chinese firms to African countries' gain then an added value may be counted up.
Brazilian companies' know-how, expertise and technology have seen them operate successfully around the world.

There being so much to be built in most parts of resource-rich, infrastructure-poor Africa to focus there is therefore a natural winner.

TEc - Europa to the rescue - Europe wanders on

Europa to rescue Europe?
Mythology called in to ease reality filled with voids and uncertainty?

Whatever it is there is a growing sense that something has to change before it becomes too late to save Europe from itself. Even when it goes unsaid, unspoken or unwritten there is deep-seated apprehension, disbelief and fear in the air. And it is not good.

As it is few can see where the EU is headed for.
For it is not only about the sovereign debt crisis, fiscal imbalances, uneven wealth levels, production and consumption patterns or sluggish to no-growth to negative growth across most countries.
Latest forecasts (for all they are worth) point to recession, stagnation or meagre growth at best, in just about every EU-member State.

Isn't there an answer politics can work from?
Is there no alternative to stop the rot?
No way of tackling every problem simultaneously while promoting growth?
Sound growth that's so critical to sustain life and hope?

TEc - Obama's win raises questions for Republicans - Republicans must show less dogma but BO is the man of the hour

A fine re-election win no doubt.
Barack Obama and his Administration did deservedly get the vote of confidence from most Americans across the country.
But America is a neatly divided house in established voting patterns and societal views as much as in the options of the political leadership in Washington.
The concerns of average Americans, however, are understandably largely shared.
The economy and jobs.

Throughout the 20th. century the US saw ever rising prosperity, material well-being and external projection of power.
Many do not realize the world has already changed relevantly posing new and permanent challenges. These will require some painstaking consensus-building on main issues especially among those whose economic and financial decisions bear an immediate impact on large groups of people.

In a nutshell BO can fairly be said to have rescued America from the brink. Financial and economic meltdown loomed large when he took office in 2009. His Administration has governed in the context of a rising economic, financial and industrial power that puts up additional pressures and opportunities.
His job is only half done for the structural imbalances that created huge year-on-year trade deficits and debt - government and household - are yet to be addressed in earnest.
This requires a vision for the collective future of the nation. One that will take on board the vast majority of those who make a difference in America's society whether in government or running a private company.
An economy geared to show better balance between domestic production, private consumption and exports.

Social policy too has seen relevant progress over the past 4 years. The scope for improving efficiencies in the system remains immense.
4 more years are indeed direly needed to consolidate policy choices undertaken and strengthen the economy.

The world can count on the renewed stay at the White House of a cosmopolitan man with a sharp intellect.
Politically a moderate who has displayed sound judgement in action and uplifting speeches that reach out to just about everyone.

TEc - Which one? - An endorsement I concur with...

Three days ahead of the elections in the US The Economist has reluctantly picked its horse.
Going by the article's gist it does so out of a lack of a solid alternative than for the incumbent's allegedly chequered record and, importantly, unknown future promise.

But Barack Obama, to the best of my ability to assess America from the safe distance of a pond, has done enough over his 4-year term to deserve a second one.
Indeed, unless a President screws up real bad in the first term he does actually need two to deliver meaningfully on main policy choices. This is much more so given the parlous state of America's economy and financial position back in 2007/8.

The Obama Administration's achievements on many fronts of domestic and foreign policy can in no way be understated. All countries have their own built-in inertias that are hard to move/remove. In the US's case the opposition camp gathered around the GOP is particularly tough on a wide range of issues which is why American society has become so severely polarised.

However light-heartedly, that "The Economist" should renew its endorsement of the Democrat Barack Obama to the White House is itself an indictment of Mitt Romney's failure to make a convincing case but also a confirmation of the current Administration's proven overall track-record.
The latter shows a fair number of accomplishments despite an awful starting line and a fast changed/changing world economic context.

America is no longer immune to many interplaying variables from outside its borders.
While the rest of the world may still catch cold when America sneezes - unevenly though - America may also get a rough ride when the world stalls...