TEc - GDP forecasts for 2016 - what should we make of forecasts?

Forecasts by and large remain truthful to themselves only. Forecasts they are and should thus be taken at face value, no more no less.

In the recent past so-called credible institutions produced heaps of forecasts that soon proved to be grossly erroneous misleading professionals and commoners alike.
I have come to believe that such predictions and the frequency of their release aim to become pressure tools rather than the mere hypothetical pointers that they will forever be.

TEc - May time - A new PM takes over

TEc has made it crystal clear where it stood before and after the referendum. As a specialist newspaper on matters pertaining to the economy its dominant line is unapologetically tilted away from pure politics.
Yet the new PM faces the daunting task of gathering many tasks together to then arrive at sensible policies acceptable to both the EU and the UK as a whole. Most of them inherently political in nature. Scotland and Northern Ireland, despite their scale and specificities, cannot be side-stepped at any point in time. A first signal was already given by TMay's early visit to Edinburgh.

The question mark that looms large is whether or not the UK's relevant sticking points are compatible with a EU whose main tenets consistently jeopardise those very points.
Can they ever be made compatible?
My point is that they have to.
The UK is important enough to continental Europe to turn it into a mere case of conditioned access to the single-market. Conversely, the EU, for all its current failings as seen by hard-line Brexiteers, is critical to the UK far more than the 450M+ internal consumer market would suggest.
This is why I can only envisage high Politics eventually taking centre stage during negotiations regardless of how hard or protracted.
When it comes to the nitty gritty of actual decisions being made both sides must bear in mind their relative weight set against a far larger backdrop of European peace, security and the welfare of citizenry across the UK and the EU.

TEc - Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom vie to become Britain's next PM - tough job looming

´Political science in the making´ would be a good label for the fallout from the In/Out Referendum.
150.000 Conservative party members will now decide between two women who backed the opposing sides of the argument. The winner will have the unenviable task of delivering on any number of fronts for the greater good of the UK.
For all the relevant cabinet experience that they may have, at the end of the day it should matter politically the very views each held during the campaign. The result may also show the depth of anti-EU feeling among the party faithful - irrespective of the Parliamentary group - or their wish to soften the stance in view of post-referendum consequences to the British economy and society already felt.
Bottom line is the UK has placed itself in a reasonably tight spot. One that calls for the leadership to show a fair amount of pragmatism, knowledge and ability to compromise. They will have to sail the country through what may only be described as unchartered territory where headwinds are likely to be met.

TEc - Tragic split - UK goes it alone. To uncertainty...

No doubt Europe is witnessing a very sad day. One that could have been avoided if only, at European level, a lot more respect were shown by EU officials towards the common peoples of Europe.
The structures of an evolving European Union whose political goals have all but been lost to the strains of globalization, also lost touch with the very peoples they purport to serve. The defeat of Remain is as much the fallout of domestic issues as it is about the failings of the EU despite Britain's already significant aloofness.
The UK is known to be a rather peculiar case indeed since applying for membership of the Common Market back in 1963. Twice snubbed by deGaulle the island nation would finally join in 1973 to hold a confirmation referendum only just two years later.
But the unease has prevailed throughout and is best exemplified in the many Opt-outs the country negotiated on core EU policies.
To my mind, an In/Out referendum was therefore inevitable. It would always be a matter of time before widespread feelings of mistrust towards the EU - stoked by an inflammatory, parochial and irresponsible tabloid media - would find echo in the political establishment. Everything made worse by the surge in net migration into the UK especially from 2004 and 2007 when two EU enlargements took on mostly eastern european countries.
DC hardly had a choice. If he did not push for a vote somebody else would sooner or later.
Time now to move on.
Having lost on an existential issue in a high turnout vote with a relevant gap between the options left him no alternative but to step down immediately. He has done so gracefully following a very high-stakes gamble the Remain camp never made the full case for.
A new chapter opens up today for the UK and the EU.
There will be short-term pain but only time will tell whether this has been the wiser choice made by the British people.

TEc - Indian solar power - an overblown numerical ambition or a real target?

This is a very very tall order by any stretch of imagination. As tall as you can have them. Optimally achievable it may theoretically be but I would rather rate the target as an intentional overblown numerical ambition. Anything close to it by 2022 will amount to a staggering victory.
I will then wilfully take my hat off to all who have today upped the stakes this high.
Leading and showing the way forward is paramount for any government. I do think that the skies over India have never been sunnier too.
However, there are also some considerable odds that call for realistic optimism barring which generously set targets, if recurrently missed, are no more than discredited hollowed out numbers.

TEc - The eye of the storm - Competition is tough but can be managed

Boeing still commands the league tables in more ways than one, Airbus constantly challenging those positions since its own inception.
In fact, Airbus' rise to world prominence in less than half a century is a major achievement industrial Europe can justly feel proud of.
There used to be a monopoly in commercial planemaking, now a duopoly has been firmly established since long. Arguably, two smaller makers from Canada and Brazil are nibbling hard at the regional jets segment while aiming higher as well.
Other countries such as China, Japan and Russia want a piece of the action too. Small entrants they may now be but if Airbus itself is anything to go by, are we headed for increased competition and multiple suppliers vying for a slice of the pie?
Far removed it sounds for now. Both Boeing and Airbus should, however, take note that their de facto duopoly may eventually be broken up.
What is unclear is the commercial fate of outsized wide-bodies such as the B747-8 and the A380. Airbus initiated the contest by setting in motion the A3XX program gambling heavily on its much vented view that the civil aviation market was asking for large volumes carried over long distances. This would bring unit costs down to minimums, the ultimate objective of very large aircraft.
After the first bout of large orders, especially from Middle-Eastern carriers and a few incumbent flag airlines, the order books appear to record no more.
It might be a temporary market reassessment made by the airline industry before a new sizing up of fleets to take on the many expected first-time travellers from emerging countries?
Answers will soon be found.
Lastly, the cost overruns of Boeing's Dreamliner program is staggering beyond belief. Ambitious projects to develop and apply new materials and technologies commonly demand more money but a +5 multiplier is well outside any reasonable scale.

TEc - Trading places - Trade-averse opinion surfaces because of the TTIP agreement?

TTIP - Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

There is no aversion to global trade as such. There is, and rightly so, deep-rooted concern that the international trading system is somehow rigged. Is it not?
This has pushed countries to compete against each other on a hugely unlevelled playing field whose framework is invisible to most except to the insiders who actually set it up.
No matter how it is looked at, enough pointers are seen showing imbalances causing a handful of countries emerging as clear winners while others have become recurrent losers.
That the stakes are high cannot be overstated. It only took a little over a decade to produce massive changes to trade flows. Consequently, to production centres, tangible wealth of nations and the current account balances of many a country.
Europe and America still remain the world's most important trading blocs but their relative weight is on the wane. Europe in particular shows multiple weaknesses as its manufacturing has been continually eroded, the exception being Germany and a few smaller countries around it.
Trade is the cornerstone of wealth creation, economic growth and development. Trade deals - bilateral or multilateral - must be hammered out to reflect the interests of all parties concerned as measured by volumes, figures achieved and communities benefited.
Should imbalances arise then the deals need to be reviewed or scrapped altogether.
The TTIP is stirring disquiet in the heartland of Europe's trading powerhouse.
There must be sound reasons for that.