domingo, 22 de agosto de 2010
TEc - "Contest of the century" - China and India arm-wrestle to raise profile.They are succeeding!
A preview of what may lie ahead as attention increasingly shifts to the East triggered by economic expansion in the world's long-standing demographic superpowers.
If they should continue to grow to acquire the volumes - across all sectors of economic and social activity - to back up those huge populations then a new world order is no doubt forthcoming.
What has confounded many and surely surprised most is the speed at which this structural change is coming about.
Starting from very low bases - mention of a 230-fold increase in trade in 20 years is impressive - is highlighted by current two-way trade at $60bn, only a trifle in the context of China's total trade and both economies' yet unfulfilled interactive potential.
I cannot gauge the extent of mistrust between Indian and Chinese political circles despite recent initiatives at warming relations.
An unsettled border dispute is always a great argument to keep ill-feelings simmering in the background.
Until such time as one confident nation led by an assertive ruler decides to open up old issues...
History tends to repeat itself on these scores but any future China-India showdown could prove very bruising and wasteful.
Anyway, on an optimistic note the emphasis over the foreseeable future should remain on a measured arm-wrestling contest for energy sources, trade, investment and political sympathy.
If they should continue to grow to acquire the volumes - across all sectors of economic and social activity - to back up those huge populations then a new world order is no doubt forthcoming.
What has confounded many and surely surprised most is the speed at which this structural change is coming about.
Starting from very low bases - mention of a 230-fold increase in trade in 20 years is impressive - is highlighted by current two-way trade at $60bn, only a trifle in the context of China's total trade and both economies' yet unfulfilled interactive potential.
I cannot gauge the extent of mistrust between Indian and Chinese political circles despite recent initiatives at warming relations.
An unsettled border dispute is always a great argument to keep ill-feelings simmering in the background.
Until such time as one confident nation led by an assertive ruler decides to open up old issues...
History tends to repeat itself on these scores but any future China-India showdown could prove very bruising and wasteful.
Anyway, on an optimistic note the emphasis over the foreseeable future should remain on a measured arm-wrestling contest for energy sources, trade, investment and political sympathy.
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