quinta-feira, 13 de janeiro de 2011
BBC Blog Stephanie Flanders: "Portugal: the next chapter" - An impressive view that hits right where it hurts most
Stephanie Flanders hit right upon it.
Right on Portugal's weak spot - the one and only that belies current woes in the markets.
A heavily indebted country for the economy it has and, critically, for its growth prospects as perceived by just about everybody. From market analysts to the common man in the street up and down the country no-one quite knows how the economy is to be kick started, let alone flourish in the years ahead.
It is not about achieving meagre growth rates. Anything below 2.5% is not good enough. A rate above 3% would allow outstanding debts to be serviced, maturing ones redeemed letting the country breathe. Therefore cooling down the markets.
It is now a hazardous time that each time Portugal takes to the markets will feel like a hurdle to leap over at an affordable price.
In the meantime the PM has correctly identified the only way forward in the quest for economic growth.
He has been playing the role of a tradesman too for quite a while.
If only a large enough section of the country's business community should succeed in their endeavours and Portugal's export-drive might provide the growth impetus so direly needed.
That alone won't do the trick but remains very much the only relevant option in the years ahead.
The government still hopes bravely to narrowly avoid recession this year.
The central bank thinks otherwise in its latest assessment forecasting a 1.3% contraction. Pretty much erasing 2010's gain.
It is, however, all-round uncertainty that prevails as 2011 rolls on...
Right on Portugal's weak spot - the one and only that belies current woes in the markets.
A heavily indebted country for the economy it has and, critically, for its growth prospects as perceived by just about everybody. From market analysts to the common man in the street up and down the country no-one quite knows how the economy is to be kick started, let alone flourish in the years ahead.
It is not about achieving meagre growth rates. Anything below 2.5% is not good enough. A rate above 3% would allow outstanding debts to be serviced, maturing ones redeemed letting the country breathe. Therefore cooling down the markets.
It is now a hazardous time that each time Portugal takes to the markets will feel like a hurdle to leap over at an affordable price.
In the meantime the PM has correctly identified the only way forward in the quest for economic growth.
He has been playing the role of a tradesman too for quite a while.
If only a large enough section of the country's business community should succeed in their endeavours and Portugal's export-drive might provide the growth impetus so direly needed.
That alone won't do the trick but remains very much the only relevant option in the years ahead.
The government still hopes bravely to narrowly avoid recession this year.
The central bank thinks otherwise in its latest assessment forecasting a 1.3% contraction. Pretty much erasing 2010's gain.
It is, however, all-round uncertainty that prevails as 2011 rolls on...
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