terça-feira, 11 de janeiro de 2011
TEc - "The race ahead" the E7 is predicted to outsize the G7 not many years going forward.There could be some glitches though...
A worthy exercise no doubt but one that leaves out many unknown variables. Unknown precisely because they have not verified yet.These might interfere at any one point in time causing long-term prediction to crash relatively lightly.
Take the world's two fastest growing already large economies of China and India. While it would appear that 2010 growth potential for both remains huge, 5-10 years down the line that potential will have changed somewhat as a result of growth already materialised.There is also the unanswerable question of how long can either country sustain such hefty growth rates without new phenomena developing - overheating, sector bubbles, commodity prices and/or shortages, political in/stability, environmental costs incurred, internal stresses and strains within society brought on by consecutive years of dizzy growth.Surely haywire and unplanned to an extent.
Any one of these or a combination of some might introduce an alteration to current assumptions.These assumptions are based essentially on high rates of growth remaining constant over prolonged periods spanning decades, even rising or dropping slightly (China) levelling off at a high value.
A more realistic study - with a high accuracy probability - would stretch no further than 10-15 years.
Time will tell.
Take the world's two fastest growing already large economies of China and India. While it would appear that 2010 growth potential for both remains huge, 5-10 years down the line that potential will have changed somewhat as a result of growth already materialised.There is also the unanswerable question of how long can either country sustain such hefty growth rates without new phenomena developing - overheating, sector bubbles, commodity prices and/or shortages, political in/stability, environmental costs incurred, internal stresses and strains within society brought on by consecutive years of dizzy growth.Surely haywire and unplanned to an extent.
Any one of these or a combination of some might introduce an alteration to current assumptions.These assumptions are based essentially on high rates of growth remaining constant over prolonged periods spanning decades, even rising or dropping slightly (China) levelling off at a high value.
A more realistic study - with a high accuracy probability - would stretch no further than 10-15 years.
Time will tell.
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